Indian equity markets are likely to trade with a cautious bias in the near term, with volatility expected to remain elevated amid a confluence of global macroeconomic factors and persistent geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, signalling a data-dependent stance as it balances inflation risks against growth concerns, even as uncertainty remains elevated amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Brent crude oil witnessed a sharp spike, briefly breaching the $120 per barrel mark, before easing on profit booking and currently trading in the $107–110 range. The rally has been largely driven by ongoing supply disruptions, with the continued blockade and closure of the Strait of Hormuz keeping global supply concerns elevated.

The Indian rupee remains under pressure, weighed down by elevated crude prices and sustained foreign outflows. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continue to be net sellers, reflecting broader global risk aversion, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) are providing partial support to the markets.

Overall, market sentiment remains fragile and highly news-driven, with crude oil volatility, geopolitical developments, currency pressures, and institutional flows acting as key drivers. The near-term trajectory of the market will largely hinge on stability in oil prices and further developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz situation.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is currently trading with a range-bound to cautious bias, hovering around the 24,150–24,200 zone. On the upside, 24,300–24,400 continues to act as a key resistance band, and a sustained move above this zone is necessary to revive bullish momentum toward 24,600+ levels. On the downside, 24,000–23,900 serves as immediate support, followed by the crucial 23,800 level. A decisive break below this zone could accelerate downside momentum toward 23,600–23,400. Momentum indicators remain neutral, with RSI near 53, indicating a lack of strong directional bias. Overall, the market outlook remains highly cautious, with a clear directional move likely only upon a breakout beyond key levels.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is trading with a slightly negative to cautious bias, reflecting continued weakness in banking stocks. On the upside, 55,700–55,900 remains an immediate hurdle, followed by a stronger resistance band at 56,400–56,500. A sustained breakout above this zone is essential to regain upward momentum toward 57,500–58,000. On the downside, 55,200–55,000 serves as a key support zone, and a decisive breakdown below this range could extend weakness toward 54,800–54,600. Overall, the outlook remains cautious with a slight negative bias, and a decisive move beyond key support or resistance levels will be crucial in determining the next directional trend.