The Indian equity market is likely to open on a cautious note, tracking subdued trends across Asian markets and an overnight sell-off in US equities. The weakness stems from renewed tariff-related uncertainty, coupled with lingering concerns around AI-led disruptions affecting global technology stocks. Investor sentiment remains guarded following President Donald Trump’s rollout of a 10–15% global tariff framework, effective today. While recent adjustments under the US–India trade arrangement provide some clarity, the move introduces near-term uncertainty for export-oriented sectors and may keep risk appetite measured at the start of the session.

Traders should also brace for typical Nifty expiry-day volatility, with choppy price action likely until positions roll over and clearer intraday direction emerges. While the broader sentiment remains constructive on the back of domestic resilience, the market is expected to stay range-bound with elevated volatility unless fresh triggers provide decisive momentum.


Nifty 50

Nifty 50 has regained its short-term strength zones, indicating improving price structure. Immediate support is placed at 25,600–25,500, while on the upside, resistance is seen around 25,800. A sustained breakout above 25,800 could pave the way for a move toward the key psychological level of 26,000, which also coincides with a supply zone marked by notable call writing activity. Momentum indicators suggest gradual stabilization, with RSI around 52 reflecting a neutral tone and MACD holding steady in positive territory. Overall, the near-term setup carries a mild positive bias. A strategy of selective accumulation on dips near support levels appears prudent, particularly on expiry day, until clearer global cues provide stronger directional conviction.


Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade firmly above its 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs, highlighting sustained institutional participation across both private and PSU banking names. Immediate support is positioned in the 60,900–60,600 zone, which remains a crucial demand area. On the upside, resistance is seen at 61,500–61,700, and a decisive breakout above this range could propel the index toward 61,800–62,000, potentially registering fresh highs. The overall structure remains constructive, with RSI near 60 indicating strong yet healthy momentum without entering overbought territory. As long as 60,600 is defended, the broader bias stays positive, with banking stocks likely to maintain relative outperformance amid expiry-driven volatility.