Indian equities are expected to trade on a positive note ahead of the Union Budget on Sunday, supported by the previous session’s rebound and optimism stemming from the Economic Survey. The Survey has projected FY26 GDP growth at 7.4% and FY27 growth in the range of 6.8–7.2%, underpinned by easing inflation, resilient domestic demand, and continued fiscal discipline. 

Ahead of the Union Budget, market participants are anticipating fiscal deficit guidance of 4.3–4.4% for FY27, alongside a continued decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Expectations of sustained public capital expenditure in the range of ?12–12.4 lakh crore (around 3.1% of GDP), with a continued focus on infrastructure, defence, electronics, and manufacturing, are supporting the medium-term growth outlook despite ongoing global headwinds.
That said, persistent FII outflows (over ?43,600 crore year-to-date), pre-Budget positioning, rupee weakness, and mixed global cues could limit sharp upside in the near term. Strong domestic institutional investor support, relative resilience in banking and metals, and optimism surrounding potential trade benefits for domestic businesses from the India–EU FTA are providing a cushion to the market. Overall sentiment remains resilient on domestic fundamentals, though event-driven volatility and range-bound trade are likely, with selective buying in capex-linked beneficiaries preferred.

Nifty 50 

Nifty has been forming higher lows, indicating selling exhaustion and improving buyer control near key supports. The index is holding firmly above 25,200–25,160, coinciding with the 200-day EMA. RSI near 43 reflects a neutral, range-bound setup. Immediate resistance lies at 25,450–25,500; a decisive breakout is required to open upside toward 25,600–25,700 (the earlier support now acting as resistance). A sustained move above 25,600 would revive bullish momentum toward 25,900. Bias remains neutral to mildly positive, favouring dip-buying near supports within the range.

Bank Nifty 

Bank Nifty continues to outperform, trading comfortably above all key EMAs (20/50/100/200-day), confirming strong leadership. Momentum remains healthy with RSI around 56 and supportive moving-average signals. Immediate resistance is placed at 60,000; a breakout could accelerate gains toward 60,300–60,500. On the downside, 59,500–59,000 is a strong demand zone, marked by trendline and 50-day EMA confluence. Overall bias stays bullish and outperforming; as long as 59,400 holds, the path remains open toward 60,400 and record territory, with banking heavyweights likely to continue driving market direction.