Spotlight

Indian equity markets are poised for a steady start, extending their recent recovery as a sharp rally on Wall Street and a broad rebound across Asian markets improve global risk sentiment. Stronger-than-expected guidance from Microsoft reignited investor optimism toward technology stocks, fuelling renewed buying across the sector and providing a supportive backdrop for global equities. GIFT Nifty futures are hovering around the 24,400 mark, compared with the Nifty's previous close of 24,317, indicating a positive opening for domestic markets. Data showing Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turning net buyers of domestic equities, with purchases exceeding ?3,600 crore in the previous session despite an uncertain geopolitical backdrop, is expected to provide an additional boost to investor sentiment and reinforce confidence in the resilience of Indian markets. 

Asian equities are trading firmly higher, led by a powerful rebound in South Korean markets, where the Kospi has surged more than 15% as upbeat corporate earnings revived confidence in the artificial intelligence theme and triggered renewed buying in semiconductor stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 has also advanced more than 5%, reinforcing the improvement in regional risk appetite. While the recovery in global technology stocks is expected to lend near-term support to Indian equities, investors are likely to remain watchful of geopolitical developments and their potential impact on energy prices and overall market sentiment.

Geopolitical risks remain elevated as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the United States and Iran exchanging fresh strikes, underscoring the expanding nature of the conflict. Tehran's latest warning that the U.S. will "pay the price" for its actions has reinforced concerns that the standoff is unlikely to ease in the near term, keeping investors focused on the potential for further escalation and its implications for global markets.

Energy markets remain a key area of concern. Crude oil prices have surged more than 20% over the past month-one of the strongest rallies in recent years, as the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to heighten concerns over global energy supplies and key shipping routes. WTI crude is currently trading near the $84 per barrel mark. For India, persistently elevated oil prices remain the most significant external risk, given their potential to widen the import bill, pressure the rupee and complicate the inflation outlook, even as broader market sentiment improves.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to witness a constructive opening, with the index attempting to build on its recent recovery as it continues to trade above key short-term support levels. Technically, the 24,300–24,400 zone, which also coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), remains the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above this band could reinforce bullish momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 24,500–24,600 region.
 
On the downside, the 24,200 zone is expected to provide immediate support, followed by the psychologically significant 24,000 mark. Holding above these levels will be important to preserve the prevailing recovery structure and keep the broader uptrend intact. Momentum indicators continue to strengthen, with the Daily RSI having generated a bullish crossover and currently hovering near the 58 mark. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains positive.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty is expected to maintain a cautiously constructive bias, supported by improving sentiment across the broader market. From a technical perspective, the 57,300–57,400 zone remains the immediate resistance band. A decisive break above this range could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for a move towards 57,800–58,000.

On the downside, immediate support is seen in the 56,700–56,800 zone. Holding above this range would keep the ongoing recovery intact, while a decisive break below 56,700 could trigger fresh selling pressure and expose the index to the next support area around 56,400–56,300. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautiously constructive, with price action likely to remain guided by key support and resistance levels.