Spotlight

Indian equity markets look set for a cautiously weak start. The benchmarks fell sharply in the previous session, with selling broad-based across sectors and midcaps and smallcaps underperforming.
 
Domestically, the RBI’s decision to hike the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.50%, its first increase in nearly four years, continues to weigh on sentiment. Foreign investors extended their selling for a tenth straight session, while the rupee remains under pressure against the dollar, trading near 96.80, adding to the strain on equities.
 
Globally, the cues remain negative. Wall Street closed lower overnight, with the Nasdaq under pressure. Fed minutes and hawkish commentary from Governor Waller have reinforced expectations of further rate hikes, keeping global risk appetite fragile. Asian markets are volatile this morning, with the Nikkei down over 1%, adding to the weakness. The KOSPI is closed today, for the Hangul Day public holiday, with trading resuming on Monday following the weekend.
 
Crude oil remains the key overhang at elevated levels, with WTI trading within the $91-92 range on renewed attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Prices trimmed some gains on the IEA’s move to speed up emergency stock releases and President Trump’s comments that the US would not attack Iran immediately. With the Iran conflict unresolved, oil remains the biggest risk for India’s inflation, current account and rupee.
 
Bias stays cautious, with markets likely to remain sensitive to crude, bond yields and FPI flows. A stabilization in oil prices and a pause in foreign selling would be needed for any meaningful recovery, while fresh escalation in West Asia could keep the market under pressure.

Technical view

Nifty 50 

Nifty 50 is likely to remain under pressure after closing sharply lower and maintaining a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, indicating continued dominance of selling pressure with the index vulnerable to further downside unless buying interest emerges at key support levels. On the upside, 22,500–22,600 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, while a sustained move above 22,600 could support a recovery toward 22,800. Until these levels are convincingly reclaimed, recovery attempts are likely to face selling pressure.
 
On the downside, 22,200–22,180 remains the crucial support zone. A decisive break below this range could accelerate the decline toward the psychological 22,000 mark. The overall outlook remains bearish, although oversold conditions leave room for a short-term technical bounce. A sustained move above 22,600 would be required to improve the near-term outlook.
 

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is likely to remain weak, with the index continuing to face selling pressure and recovery attempts attracting fresh supply at higher levels. The broader technical structure remains bearish, although some moderation in downside momentum could allow intermittent relief rallies. On the upside, the psychological 55,000 mark remains the immediate hurdle, followed by the 55,200–55,400 resistance zone. A sustained move above 55,400 could improve the near-term structure, while failure to reclaim 55,000 may keep the index vulnerable to further selling.
 
On the downside, 54,400 remains the crucial support level. A decisive break below this zone could extend the decline toward 54,000–53,800. Overall, the technical outlook remains bearish, with holding above 54,400 critical to preventing further deterioration and a sustained move above 55,000 needed to ease the immediate pressure.