Spotlight

Indian equity markets are likely to open on a flat note, with GIFT Nifty holding above 23,300 against the Nifty 50’s previous close of 23,346, pointing to a largely unchanged start for domestic equities. WTI crude has eased to around the $95-per-barrel mark, while Brent remains above $100, keeping energy costs elevated despite the recent pullback.

Geopolitical risks, however, remain a key source of uncertainty. Tehran has threatened painful retaliation against the U.S. and its allies in the event of further military action, keeping tensions in the Middle East and risks to regional energy supplies firmly in focus. Any renewed escalation could quickly trigger volatility across crude oil, currencies and global equities.

The U.S. tariff measures targeting major buyers of Russian oil also remain an important risk for global trade and energy markets. India has warned that the measures could strain bilateral ties, while the potential impact on Russian oil flows could add further uncertainty to an already tight global energy market. Any escalation on the tariff front could therefore affect crude flows, energy prices and sentiment toward emerging markets.

Asian markets are trading higher in early trade, with South Korea’s KOSPI gaining more than 1%, providing a supportive regional backdrop for Indian equities. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is closed today for a market holiday.

The domestic backdrop remains cautiously stable, with the recent easing in crude prices providing some relief. However, developments in the Middle East and movements in energy prices are likely to remain the key factors shaping investor sentiment through the session.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is likely to extend its attempt at stabilization, with the broader technical structure still cautious. On the upside, 23,400 remains the immediate hurdle, and a sustained move above this level would open the path toward the 23,500–23,600 resistance zone. Only a decisive close above 23,600 would meaningfully improve the broader structure, given the index remains below its key moving averages.
 
On the downside, 23,200 serves as the immediate support, with the more crucial 23,100–23,070 band acting as the stronger cushion below that. A break below 23,070 would risk reviving the broader downtrend that has now persisted for six weeks. Momentum has improved marginally following the recent three-session recovery; however, the setup has yet to confirm a reversal, keeping the near-term outlook cautious.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to remain in a broader corrective structure, with the 56,000 level serving as a crucial support for maintaining near-term stability. On the upside, 56,700–56,800 remains the key resistance zone, while a sustained breakout above 57,000 would provide further strength and potentially open the way towards 57,800–58,000.
 
On the downside, a decisive break below 56,000 could intensify weakness and expose the index to the 55,800–55,700 zone. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, although the index continues to show relative resilience, with 56,000 being the key level to hold.