Spotlight

Indian equity markets are likely to open on a steady footing, drawing support from a Wall Street rebound and a firmer tone across Asian markets. A pullback in U.S. Treasury yields has offered some relief, while signs that the recent sell-off in semiconductor stocks is losing momentum have helped improve regional sentiment. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi were both trading more than 1% higher in early dealings, providing a supportive backdrop for domestic equities.

The recovery, however, may prove measured. Crude oil remains a key variable for India, with WTI trading around $94–95 a barrel and keeping concerns over import costs and inflation in focus. Elevated energy prices could continue to limit the scope for a sustained advance in domestic markets.

Geopolitical risks remain another source of uncertainty. The Houthis’ claim of a deadly attack near a government palace in Aden, Yemen, underscores the fragility of the regional security situation and the potential for renewed volatility in energy markets. Investors are also likely to keep a close watch on foreign institutional investor flows for signs of a more durable improvement in risk appetite.

The near-term outlook remains cautiously positive, with gains on Wall Street and strength across Asia offering support at the open. The sustainability of the recovery will largely depend on crude oil prices, global bond yields, geopolitical developments and foreign investor flows. 

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 staged a strong recovery on Thursday, reclaiming its 20-day EMA as improving momentum indicators signalled a pickup in short-term buying interest. However, the index continues to trade below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, suggesting that the broader technical structure remains cautious. On the upside, 23,000–23,100 represents the immediate resistance zone. A sustained breakout above 23,100 could extend the recovery towards the next resistance zone of 23,300–23,400.
 
On the downside, 22,800 remains the immediate support level, followed by 22,600. A decisive break below 22,600 could undermine the ongoing recovery and trigger renewed selling pressure. The RSI has improved to around 50, indicating a recovery in momentum and a more balanced near-term setup. Overall, the short-term outlook has improved, but sustained buying above 23,000–23,100 will be essential to confirm further upside, while the broader trend remains cautious until the index reclaims its key longer-term moving averages.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to maintain its short-term upward momentum, with the 56,000–56,100 zone emerging as the immediate resistance area. This zone also aligns with the 50-day EMA, making it a crucial hurdle for the index. A decisive breakout above 56,200 could strengthen the ongoing recovery and pave the way for further upside.  
 
On the downside, 55,600–55,500 represents the immediate support zone. A decisive break below this range could trigger renewed selling pressure, dragging the index towards 55,200–55,000. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautiously positive. However, sustained buying above 56,000–56,200 is essential to confirm a stronger recovery and establish a more bullish technical structure.