Spotlight

Indian markets are expected to begin the new week with a cautiously optimistic undertone, supported by a sharp correction in crude oil prices and improving sentiment surrounding the ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations, although investors continue to remain mindful of lingering geopolitical risks.

Global sentiment improved after both the United States and Iran signalled progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes of a gradual easing in regional tensions and reducing immediate concerns around global energy supply disruptions. However, remarks from Donald Trump stating that the U.S. is “not rushing” to secure a peace agreement with Iran reinforced the view that negotiations may remain prolonged and complex, keeping broader uncertainty elevated.

Crude oil prices have corrected sharply and are currently trading in the $91–92 per barrel range, marking a significant pullback from recent highs above the $100–105 zone. The decline in oil prices is being viewed as a meaningful positive for India’s macroeconomic outlook, as softer energy prices help ease concerns around inflation, import costs and corporate profitability.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee has witnessed a gradual recovery over the past two sessions and is currently trading in the 95.5–95.7 range against the U.S. dollar. The rebound follows the recent moderation in crude oil prices after the currency had weakened to record lows near the 96.9 mark, offering some relief to broader macroeconomic sentiment.

Institutional flows, however, continue to remain mixed. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have largely remained net sellers, although the intensity of outflows has moderated in recent sessions. Persistent foreign selling continues to cap stronger upside momentum in the broader market, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continue to provide stability through steady domestic buying support.

Overall, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Easing crude oil prices and improving diplomatic signals from the U.S.–Iran negotiations are supporting risk appetite, although lingering geopolitical uncertainty and continued FII outflows are likely to keep markets range-bound and volatile in the near term.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautiously positive yet range-bound undertone amid ongoing consolidation near higher levels. Technically, resistance continues to emerge in the 23,800–23,900 range, and a sustained breakout above this zone could strengthen bullish momentum further and push the index toward the 24,000–24,200 levels. On the downside, the 23,600 area remains a crucial immediate support zone, while a decisive break below the broader 23,300 level could weaken sentiment and drag the index toward the 23,000 mark. Overall, the index is likely to continue trading within the broader consolidation band unless either side of the range is decisively breached.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautious to mildly positive undertone amid gradual recovery attempts in the banking space. Technically, immediate resistance is placed near the 54,200 level, and a sustained breakout above this zone could extend recovery momentum toward the 54,400–54,600 levels. On the downside, immediate support is now seen in the 53,600–53,500 range, while a decisive break below this band could drag the index toward the stronger support zone near 53,300–53,000. The near-term technical structure remains cautiously positive, while stronger upside momentum will require a decisive move above immediate resistance levels.