Spotlight

Indian equity markets are likely to remain cautious as renewed geopolitical uncertainty and a rebound in crude oil prices weigh on investor sentiment. The rejection by U.S. President Donald Trump of Iran’s proposal to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has revived concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, making oil prices the dominant factor for global markets.  

WTI crude is currently trading around $93–$94 a barrel, while Brent has climbed back above $105. Rising global bond yields and a stronger U.S. dollar also remain important headwinds for emerging markets, as tighter financial conditions could weigh on foreign portfolio flows and broader risk appetite. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields, alongside renewed concerns over inflation, are reinforcing expectations that global monetary policy could remain restrictive for longer.

Foreign institutional activity will remain another key factor to watch after sustained selling in recent weeks. Recent data points to an intensification of FII outflows, while continued buying by domestic institutional investors is providing some cushion to domestic equities.

Asian markets are trading mixed in early trade, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining around 0.5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI is down more than 1%. The divergence reflects a mixed regional backdrop, with gains in Japanese equities offset by weakness in South Korean technology and semiconductor stocks. 

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to exhibit a weak broader technical structure, with the index trading below key moving averages and extending its weekly losing streak. The recent recovery suggests some absorption of selling pressure; however, a sustained reversal is yet to be confirmed. On the upside, 23,200 remains the immediate resistance zone, while a sustained move above 23,300 could provide further stability and support a recovery towards the 23,500 region. Until the index decisively reclaims this resistance band, recovery attempts are likely to face selling pressure.
 
On the downside, 23,000 remains the crucial support level. A decisive break below this zone could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 22,800 region. Holding above 23,000 will therefore be important to prevent further deterioration in the short-term technical setup. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with sustained recovery requiring a decisive move above the key resistance levels.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to remain under pressure from a broader technical perspective, with the index trading below several key moving averages. On the upside, 55,700–55,800 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, while a sustained move above 56,000 would be important for improving the near-term structure and could support a recovery towards 56,300–56,500.
 
On the downside, 55,400–55,300 remains the immediate support zone, followed by the crucial 55,000 level. A decisive break below 55,000 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to further downside. Overall, the near-term technical outlook for Bank Nifty remains cautious, with a sustained move above 56,000 required to improve the recovery prospects.