Spotlight

Indian markets are poised to begin the week on a cautious footing as renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel undermine hopes of a lasting ceasefire and rekindle geopolitical concerns across global markets. The latest escalation has dampened investor confidence, reinforcing a risk-off mood and keeping market participants focused on developments in the Middle East.
 
Crude oil prices surged more than 2% at the open amid fears of potential supply disruptions, with crude oil currently trading in the $92–93 per barrel range. The renewed volatility in energy markets poses additional challenges for India's inflation outlook and import bill, adding to broader macroeconomic concerns.
 
Global market cues remain weak. U.S. stock futures declined following a sharp selloff in technology stocks, while Asian markets witnessed significant weakness, with the Nikkei falling nearly 4% and the KOSPI declining more than 8%. The broad-based weakness across global equities is expected to weigh on domestic market sentiment at the opening bell.
 
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to remain net sellers, with persistent outflows acting as a key headwind for Indian equities and limiting the scope for a sustained recovery.
 
Overall, market sentiment remains cautious to negative in the near term. Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, rising crude oil prices, continued FII selling, and weak global market performance are likely to keep volatility elevated. Any further deterioration in geopolitical conditions could intensify selling pressure, while signs of de-escalation may provide support for a gradual recovery in risk assets.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious undertone as the index remains confined within a broad consolidation range and struggles to sustain momentum above key resistance levels. From a technical perspective, the 23,450–23,550 zone continues to act as a key immediate resistance area. A sustained breakout above this range would be required to improve sentiment and could pave the way for a recovery towards the 23,750–23,800 levels.
 
On the downside, the 23,250–23,150 region remains a critical support zone. Holding above this range will be essential to preserve the current recovery structure. However, a decisive break below 23,150 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to further downside towards the 23,000–22,900 zone. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the RSI hovering around the 40 mark, indicating weak underlying strength. Overall, the near-term technical structure remains cautious. A decisive move above the immediate resistance zone will be necessary to establish stronger bullish momentum and improve the broader market outlook, while a sustained breach below the 23,000 level could weaken the technical structure further and increase downside risks.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautious bias as the index remains below key resistance levels. From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is placed in the 54,800–55,000 zone. A sustained move above this range would strengthen bullish momentum and could pave the way for a further advance towards the 55,400–55,600 region, which remains a key resistance area in the near term.
 
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 54,000–53,800. Holding above this zone will be crucial to maintain the current recovery structure. However, a decisive break below this range could trigger renewed weakness and drag the index towards the 53,600 level. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with a sustained breakout above the immediate resistance zone required to confirm stronger bullish momentum.