Spotlight

Indian equity markets are poised for a steady start as easing crude oil prices continue to improve the near-term macro backdrop for domestic equities. WTI crude remains in the $81–82 per barrel range after retreating from recent highs. Reflecting the improved sentiment, GIFT Nifty futures are trading above 24,300 mark in early trade, pointing to a positive opening for domestic markets despite mixed global cues.

Global markets present a mixed picture. Wall Street ended lower after U.S. inflation came in slightly above expectations, clouding the outlook for the Federal Reserve's policy path. Asian markets, however, are showing mixed performance, with Japan's Nikkei 225 trading marginally lower while South Korea's Kospi is up nearly 1% in early trade. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, came in slightly above expectations, complicating the outlook for monetary policy and reinforcing expectations that policymakers are likely to remain cautious. Investor attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for further clarity on the interest-rate outlook.

On the corporate front, Nvidia lifted technology sentiment after delivering better-than-expected quarterly results and forecasting roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, helping ease investor concerns over the sustainability of heavy AI-related capital spending.  

Geopolitical developments remain an important variable for markets. U.S. President Donald Trump described the Strait of Hormuz as a "very functioning" waterway despite sporadic rocket and drone activity. While the immediate outlook for energy supplies has improved alongside lower crude prices, the broader geopolitical situation remains unresolved, leaving developments across West Asia central to the outlook for oil prices, the Indian rupee and global risk sentiment.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is likely to maintain a cautious to range-bound bias as the index continues to face selling pressure at higher levels. The 24,300–24,400 region, which also coincides with the 200-day EMA, remains the key resistance zone. A sustained breakout above 24,400 would strengthen the recovery structure and could pave the way towards the 24,500–24,600 levels.
 
On the downside, 24,200 remains the immediate support zone, followed by the crucial 24,000 psychological level. Holding above these levels will be important to prevent renewed selling pressure and preserve the recovery structure. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious. The index needs to decisively reclaim 24,400 to establish stronger bullish momentum, while sustained trading below 24,200 could keep the index subdued and limit further recovery attempts.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to display comparatively stronger technical resilience, comfortably holding above all key EMAs, including the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs. The 57,800–58,000 remains the crucial resistance band, where selling pressure remains visible. A sustained breakout above 58,000 would strengthen the recovery structure and could pave the way towards the 58,300–58,500 levels.  
 
On the downside, 57,600–57,500 is likely to act as the immediate support zone, followed by the stronger 57,300–57,200 region. Holding above these levels will be important to preserve the prevailing recovery structure. However, a decisive break below 57,000 could trigger renewed selling pressure and expose the index to lower support levels. Overall, the near-term technical outlook for Bank Nifty remains cautiously constructive. Sustained trading above 58,000 would reinforce bullish momentum and support further upside, while failure to clear the resistance band could keep the index range-bound.