Investor sentiment remains cautious with a near-term bearish bias, with market direction closely linked to crude oil price trends, geopolitical developments, currency movements, and institutional investor flows. Since the latest escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Indian equity markets have witnessed heightened volatility and sustained downside pressure, driven by the sharp surge in global crude oil prices and continued weakness in the Indian rupee, which has recently hit a historic low against the US dollar. The ongoing Iran–Israel–US conflict, tanker attacks in the Gulf region, and concerns over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes have further intensified uncertainty across global financial markets. 

These developments have pushed Brent crude prices toward the $90–$100 per barrel range, raising concerns about possible supply disruptions, rising inflationary pressures, and further weakness in emerging market currencies.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained aggressive sellers, with total outflows of around ?56,883 crore during the first half of March, including a single-day outflow of nearly ?10,717 crore, the largest recorded so far in 2026. However, the impact of these outflows has been partially cushioned by steady buying from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), which has helped limit sharper declines in the broader market.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to remain under pressure following the recent corrective phase.
A sustained break below the 23,000 psychological level could extend the decline toward the 22,800–22,700 support zone. From a broader structural perspective, 21,800 and 18,600 remain key long-term support levels, which have historically acted as strong demand zones during major market corrections. On the upside, 23,300–23,500 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone. A decisive move above this range could trigger short-covering, potentially pushing the index toward 23,800–24,000 levels.

Momentum indicators continue to highlight prevailing weakness. The RSI is hovering around 24, placing the index in deeply oversold territory, though the absence of a clear bullish divergence suggests that selling pressure remains dominant. Meanwhile, the MACD remains deeply negative with expanding bearish histogram bars, indicating strong downside momentum.

While oversold conditions may lead to intermittent technical pullbacks, the broader market structure characterized by lower highs and lower lows, along with the breach of key moving averages and trendlines keeps the near-term outlook cautiously bearish with elevated volatility. 

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to underperform the broader market, following persistent selling pressure across both PSU and private sector banking stocks. The index must hold above the 53,500 support level, as a decisive break below this zone could accelerate the decline toward the 53,000–52,200 range in the near term. On the upside, 54,500–54,700 is likely to act as the immediate resistance band, and a sustained move above this range would be required to trigger a short-term recovery.

Momentum indicators remain weak. The RSI is hovering near 23, placing the index in deep oversold territory, which may lead to temporary technical bounces. However, the MACD continues to remain sharply negative with expanding bearish histogram bars, highlighting strong downside momentum. The broader trend continues to favor the bears in the near term, with market direction likely to remain sensitive to banking sector participation, FII flows, and global risk sentiment.