Spotlight

Indian markets are expected to trade under pressure as the continuing exchange of military strikes between the United States and Iran weighs on global risk sentiment. Investor concerns have intensified after the U.S. reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% transit fee on cargo passing through the strategic waterway, triggering fresh fears of disruptions to global energy supplies and a sharp surge in crude oil prices.

Crude oil prices have climbed above the $80 per barrel mark, touching a four-week high, and are currently trading in the $79–80 range. Adding to the cautious market sentiment, the latest inflation data showed a sharp acceleration in India's consumer price inflation. Retail inflation rose to 4.38% in June, up from 3.93% in May, driven primarily by higher food and transport costs. With inflation now exceeding the RBI's 4% target, the recent surge in crude oil prices has intensified concerns over imported inflation, posing a key headwind to India's inflation outlook and the broader macroeconomic environment.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to maintain a cautiously positive technical bias, extending its recovery from recent lows and sustaining above the 24,200 mark. The index remains in a constructive phase, although upside momentum is likely to remain capped until it clears a key resistance hurdle. From a technical standpoint, the 24,300–24,400 zone represents the immediate resistance, coinciding with a critical supply area. A decisive and sustained move above this range would confirm a bullish breakout, strengthening positive momentum and opening the door for a potential rally towards the 24,500–24,600 region.
 
On the downside, the 24,000 level continues to act as a key psychological and technical support. However, a decisive breach below 24,000 could invite renewed selling pressure, exposing the index to a corrective move towards the 23,900–23,800 support zone. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautiously positive. While the broader recovery trend remains intact, a sustained breakout above the 24,300–24,400 resistance zone will be essential to confirm the continuation of the uptrend and improve the overall market sentiment.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to exhibit a cautiously positive technical structure despite recent volatility, suggesting that underlying buying interest remains intact. From a technical perspective, the 58,200–58,300 zone continues to act as the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above this band would reinforce bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance towards the 58,600–58,700 region.
 
On the downside, the 57,800 level is expected to provide immediate support. However, a decisive break below this zone could trigger profit booking and drag the index towards the 57,600–57,500 support region. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautiously positive, with a sustained move above the 58,200–58,300 resistance band required to confirm the continuation of the ongoing recovery.