Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautious bias, with investors likely to remain selective despite an improvement in global risk appetite. While softer U.S. inflation data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September, the unresolved U.S.-Iran standoff continues to underpin crude oil prices, leaving oil-importing economies such as India more vulnerable to inflationary pressures and currency volatility.
Overnight, Wall Street advanced, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high after weaker-than-expected U.S. producer price inflation strengthened expectations of a steady Federal Reserve policy stance. Continued strength in AI-driven technology stocks also lifted the Nasdaq, extending the positive momentum across U.S. equities.

Asian markets mirrored the upbeat global tone, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising more than 1.5% and South Korea's Kospi advancing over 2% in early trade. Even so, GIFT Nifty futures are trading in the 24,400–24,450 range in early trade, compared with the Nifty's previous close of 24,395, pointing to a largely flat opening for domestic equities as geopolitical concerns and elevated energy prices continue to temper optimism generated by stronger overseas markets.

On the geopolitical front, uncertainty remains elevated as the U.S. Secretary of Defense indicated that Washington could maintain its blockade on Iran for an extended period, while Tehran warned that the conflict could persist through President Donald Trump's current term. The increasingly entrenched positions on both sides continue to cloud prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough and keep investors wary of further disruptions to global energy supplies.

WTI crude oil has eased modestly from its recent highs to trade around $81 a barrel. However, prices remain elevated and continue to reflect a geopolitical risk premium, with developments surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain the principal drivers of sentiment across global commodity and financial markets.

 
Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is likely to remain under pressure at higher levels after closing below the 24,400 mark in the previous session, with recent price action indicating continued supply at elevated levels. The 24,500–24,600 zone remains the key resistance area. A sustained breakout above 24,600 could improve near-term sentiment and support a recovery towards the 24,800 level.  
 
On the downside, the 24,300–24,250 zone remains the crucial support area. A decisive break below 24,250 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 24,000 psychological mark. The 20-day and 200-day DEMA are positioned around the 24,363–24,385 region, making this zone important for maintaining the broader short-term structure. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious. Unless the index decisively reclaims the 24,500–24,600 resistance band, recovery attempts are likely to face selling pressure at higher levels.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with the broader structure holding relatively steady as long as the index sustains above the 57,500–57,400 support region. The 57,800–58,000 zone remains the immediate resistance band. A sustained breakout above 58,000 could strengthen buying momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 58,300–58,500 region.
 
On the downside, 57,500 remains the immediate support, followed by the 57,200–57,000 zone. Sustaining above 57,400 will be important to preserve the prevailing recovery structure, while a decisive break below 57,200 could trigger fresh profit booking and weaken the near-term technical setup. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious and range-bound, with 58,000 acting as the key upside trigger and 57,400–57,200 serving as the crucial support zone.