Indian equity markets are likely to see a flat to mildly positive start, tracking a modest overnight recovery on Wall Street and a constructive tone across Asian markets in early trade. However, the overall undertone is expected to remain cautious, as sentiment stays subdued amid persistent US–Iran geopolitical tensions and firm crude oil prices, which continue to pose a macroeconomic challenge for India. At the same time, ongoing concerns around AI-driven disruptions in global technology stocks are weighing on broader risk appetite. While the rebound in overseas markets offers some comfort heading into the open, geopolitical tensions, fresh tariff-related uncertainty following the US Supreme Court’s rejection of President Trump’s earlier reciprocal tariffs, and lingering AI-led concerns are likely to keep sentiment guarded at higher levels.

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 is signaling renewed short-term pressure after its recent rebound lost momentum. Immediate support is placed around 25,300, a crucial demand zone near the recent swing lows; a decisive break below this level may intensify selling pressure toward 25,200–25,150. On the upside, resistance is seen in the 25,600–25,700 range, and only a sustained move above 25,800 could pave the way for a rally toward the psychological 26,000 mark. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with RSI hovering near 45 and MACD in negative territory, indicating the broader bias stays weak unless a strong breakout alters the current structure.

Bank Nifty

The Nifty Bank is displaying a slightly fragile near-term setup but has managed to hold above the crucial 61,000 mark. The index is encountering resistance in the 61,500–61,700 zone, aligned with recent swing highs, where supply from major private and PSU banking stocks is evident. Immediate support is placed around 60,900–60,600, near its recent intraday base. A decisive breakout above the resistance band would confirm renewed strength and could trigger a recovery rally. Momentum indicators remain constructive, with RSI hovering around 56 and MACD in positive territory. As long as 60,600 is sustained, the broader bias remains positive, with the banking index likely to continue outperforming the broader market.