Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautious undertone as persistent uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran negotiations continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Overnight cues from Wall Street were subdued, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each declining about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.6%, as investors turned cautious ahead of Wednesday's U.S. consumer price inflation data and amid the continuing stalemate between Washington and Tehran over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Reflecting the mixed global backdrop, GIFT Nifty futures are trading just above the 24,500 mark, compared with the Nifty's previous close of 24,471, indicating a flat-to-mildly positive start for domestic equities.

Asian markets are trading mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 edging marginally lower, while South Korea's Kospi is up more than 2% in early trade, providing some support to regional sentiment. Even so, elevated crude oil prices, lingering geopolitical uncertainty, and mixed global cues are likely to keep investors cautious.

On the geopolitical front, reports that regional mediators have travelled to Tehran in an effort to advance peace negotiations have raised hopes of renewed diplomatic progress. However, reports of fresh attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, coupled with the absence of a clear roadmap toward a final agreement, continue to keep market participants in a wait-and-watch mode.

WTI crude oil remains elevated in the $83–84 per barrel range, keeping concerns over inflation, India's import bill, corporate margins, and rupee stability firmly in focus. Meanwhile, forecasts indicating weaker monsoon activity across parts of western and southern India over the next fortnight will be another key factor to watch, given their potential implications for agriculture, rural demand, and the broader inflation outlook.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to trade with a cautious bias, coming off a stretch of weakness where the index couldn't hold above its higher resistance band. 24,500 now serves as the key pivot to watch. Clearing 24,600 with conviction would help lift sentiment and put the 24,700–24,800 zone within reach.
 
On the downside, a decisive break below 24,400 would likely accelerate selling, opening the door to a slide toward 24,300–24,200. Overall, the index looks set to stay boxed in between 24,400 and 24,600 for now, with a decisive move past either boundary needed to set the next directional tone.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to stay cautious, having recently broken down below its 20-day EMA amid continued selling pressure. The 57,500–57,600 zone now stands as the immediate resistance. A sustained recovery above 57,600 would help the index regain momentum and move towards the 58,000 mark.
 
On the downside, 57,200 remains the immediate support, and a decisive break below this level could expose the index to the 57,000–56,800 region. Overall, Bank Nifty carries a relatively weaker setup at this stage. A decisive breakout or breakdown from these key levels will determine the index's next directional move.