Indian equity markets are likely to trade on a cautious note, with investor sentiment firmly anchored to evolving geopolitical developments. The primary global trigger remains the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. Recent comments from Donald Trump indicating that “Project Freedom” will be paused temporarily, effectively halting plans to escort vessels through the strait amid ongoing negotiations with Iran-offer some near-term respite. However, the broader blockade dynamics remain unresolved, keeping energy markets on edge.

Crude oil prices, while easing from recent highs above $110, continue to trade at elevated levels in the $99–103 range, reflecting persistent supply-side concerns and an embedded geopolitical risk premium. The trajectory of oil will remain a key determinant of market direction, given its direct implications for inflation and external balances.

On the domestic front, the Indian rupee remains under pressure, weighed down by elevated crude prices and sustained dollar demand. Institutional flows present a mixed picture, with foreign institutional investors (FIIs) reverting to net sellers in the previous session, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continue to provide partial support. A sustained return of foreign inflows will be critical in stabilising sentiment and supporting any meaningful upside.

Overall, market sentiment remains fragile and largely headline-driven. Crude oil dynamics, geopolitical developments, currency movements and institutional flows will continue to shape the near-term outlook, with volatility expected to persist in the absence of clear resolution on the global front. 

Technical view 

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a range-bound to cautious bias, hovering around the 24,000–24,100 zone, reflecting a lack of strong follow-through buying amid elevated volatility. From a technical perspective, the 24,300–24,400 range remains a strong resistance band, and a sustained close above this zone is necessary to revive bullish momentum. On the downside, 23,800 continues to act as a key support level, with a decisive break below this zone likely to accelerate weakness toward 23,600–23,400. Overall, the index remains range-bound with a cautious undertone, and directional clarity is expected only on a decisive breakout beyond key support or resistance levels.

Bank Nifty 

Bank Nifty continues to trade on a slightly weaker note, currently hovering near the 54,500–54,600 zone, reflecting subdued momentum in the banking space. On the upside, 55,500–55,600 acts as immediate resistance, followed by the 56,000–56,300 zone, where supply pressure is likely to emerge. A sustained breakout above this band is essential to regain upward momentum toward 57,000+ levels. On the downside, the 54,400–54,200 zone serves as immediate support, and a break below this range could extend weakness further. Momentum indicators remain weak, with RSI near 44 and tilting downward, indicating softening trend strength. Overall, the index maintains a slightly negative to cautious bias, with sustained buying above resistance required for any meaningful recovery.