Indian equities are likely to see a mild technical pullback from recent lows with a positive close in US markets and mildly positive tone across Asian markets providing early support. Recent remarks from the U.S. administration, indicating a possible rollback of tariff measures linked to India’s reduced Russian oil imports, have provided a near-term sentiment boost. However, clarity on timelines and execution remains key, keeping optimism measured. On the flip side, persistent FII outflows and continued weakness in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar are likely to cap upside momentum, even as steady DII participation continues to absorb selling pressure at lower levels.

Directional conviction is likely to remain limited in the early hours, with participation expected to be selective and volumes moderate after the holiday break. With the Union Budget just a few days away and the corporate earnings season in progress, stock-specific and news-driven moves are expected to remain elevated, adding to intraday volatility.  The nationwide bank strike may create temporary pressure on banking and financial stocks and cause marginal liquidity disruptions, though the broader market impact should remain contained and short-lived. 

Overall, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with markets likely to trade in a range, and sharp directional moves remaining limited in the absence of fresh global triggers or decisive policy clarity. 

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook
 
From a technical perspective, Nifty 50 remains in a sideways to corrective phase after slipping below its short-term trendline supports over the past two weeks. The formation of lower lows indicates continued downside pressure, with the index now hovering near a critical psychological zone. The 24,900–25,000 band remains an important near-term support area, and a decisive break below this zone could accelerate selling pressure toward the 24,500 region. On the upside, the 25,200–25,300 zone, coinciding with the 200-day EMA near 25,160, continues to act as a strong supply area. Although the RSI is hovering near oversold territory around 29, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical relief bounce, the broader structure will remain weak unless the index sustains above 25,400.

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook

Bank Nifty continues to display intermittent relative strength compared to the broader market, though the overall trend remains under pressure. The index is currently testing an important support zone around 58,300–58,100, aligned with its 100-day EMA. As long as this band holds, the near-term outlook remains neutral to mildly positive, with scope for a recovery toward 59,000 and potentially 60,000 on a sustained breakout. However, failure to hold above 58,300 could trigger another corrective leg, dragging the index toward the 58,000–57,500 zone. Momentum indicators show mild improvement, but broader market weakness and sector-specific concerns are likely to cap aggressive upside attempts.