Spotlight

Indian markets are likely to remain under pressure as surging crude oil prices and rising global bond yields continue to weigh on investor sentiment amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East. While India's resilient domestic growth outlook provides an underlying cushion, external macroeconomic and geopolitical risks are expected to dominate near-term market direction, keeping the broader outlook cautious.

Crude oil has emerged as the key near-term risk for domestic equities. WTI crude has surged more than 8% over the past two sessions following renewed U.S.-Iran military tensions, reigniting concerns over potential disruptions to energy supplies from the region. The benchmark is currently trading around the $91–92 per barrel range. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have climbed sharply, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.8%, adding pressure to global equity valuations. Rising bond yields pose a double challenge for equities, as they increase the discount rate used in equity valuation models, reducing the present value of future cash flows, while also making fixed-income investments relatively more attractive.

The deteriorating global backdrop was reflected in overnight market performance. U.S. equities ended sharply lower, while Asian markets extended the risk-off sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI both declining more than 2% in early trade. The broad-based weakness across global equities is likely to keep Indian markets on the defensive despite supportive domestic fundamentals.

On the geopolitical front, renewed military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran have intensified concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global crude oil shipments. Any prolonged disruption to energy flows through the region could keep oil prices elevated, sustain inflationary pressures, and reinforce expectations of tighter global monetary conditions, creating a challenging environment for risk assets in the near term. 

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to remain under pressure, with the broader technical structure remaining weak as the index trades below its key short- and medium-term moving averages. On the upside, the 24,150–24,200 region is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, followed by the broader 24,300–24,400 band. A sustained move above 24,200 would be required to stabilize the near-term structure, while a decisive breakout above 24,400 would strengthen bullish momentum and signal a meaningful recovery.
 
On the downside, 24,000 remains the crucial immediate support level. Although the index managed to defend this level on a closing basis in the previous session, sustained trading below 24,000 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 23,900–23,800 region. Momentum indicators remain subdued. The RSI is hovering in the mid-40s, indicating weak momentum and a bearish undertone, while the MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting that downside momentum continues to dominate. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious-to-weak.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade within a broader range, with the index struggling to regain the 57,500–57,600 region, which is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above this band could help stabilize the near-term technical structure and open the way towards the 57,800–58,000 region. A decisive breakout above 58,000 would be required to strengthen bullish momentum and signal a meaningful recovery.  
On the downside, 57,200–57,000 remains the crucial support zone. A sustained break below 57,000 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 56,800 region. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the RSI hovering around the neutral-to-weak 48 zone, while the MACD remains in negative territory, indicating that downside momentum continues to persist. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious.