Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautious undertone as improving sentiment stemming from progress in the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations is being offset by weakness in global technology stocks and concerns over a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve. Investor sentiment remains mixed, with renewed pressure on global equities following a sharp sell-off in U.S. technology shares amid valuation concerns and uncertainty over future spending trends, while expectations of prolonged higher interest rates continue to weigh on risk appetite.

U.S. markets ended sharply lower overnight, although Asian equities are showing signs of a technical rebound in early trade. Gift Nifty is also indicating a modestly positive start. 

On the geopolitical front, the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations continue to make steady progress, helping ease concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies and providing an underlying source of support for financial markets. However, investors are likely to remain cautious until a formal agreement is finalised and implemented, limiting the scope for a sustained improvement in risk sentiment.

Crude oil prices have extended their decline and are currently trading in the $72–73 per barrel range. Prices remained under pressure as progress in the ongoing peace negotiations and the successful resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to ease concerns over potential supply disruptions. 

On the domestic front, monsoon progress will remain under close scrutiny, with rainfall deficiencies across several regions raising concerns over agricultural output, food inflation and rural consumption. While the government is monitoring the situation closely and preparing measures to limit any adverse impact on crop production and prices, investors are likely to view monsoon developments as an important determinant of inflation expectations and broader economic sentiment in the coming weeks. 

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious undertone after slipping below the crucial 24,000 psychological mark, reflecting persistent selling pressure at higher levels. From a technical perspective, the 24,000 level now serves as the immediate resistance zone. A sustained breakout above this level would be required to revive bullish momentum and could pave the way for a move towards the 24,100–24,200 region.
 
On the downside, the 23,800 level remains a key support zone. Holding above this level will be critical to preserving the broader recovery structure and preventing further weakness. However, a sustained break below 23,800 could trigger fresh selling pressure and expose the index to the 23,600 support region. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious. While the broader market structure continues to hold above key support levels, a sustained move above the 24,000 resistance zone will be essential to improve market sentiment, confirm renewed bullish momentum, and support the continuation of the recovery trend.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautious undertone, reflecting profit booking after its recent rally. From a technical perspective, the 57,500–57,600 region is now expected to act as the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above this band would be required to revive bullish momentum and could pave the way for a recovery towards the 57,800–58,000 region.
On the downside, the 57,000 level remains a crucial support. A decisive break below this level could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 56,800–56,600 support zone. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious. A sustained breakout above the 57,500–57,600 resistance zone will be essential to restore bullish momentum and confirm the continuation of the broader recovery trend.