The Indian equity market is likely to open on a weak note, with sentiment driven by a mix of global uncertainty, macro pressures, and continued institutional selling. The environment remains highly volatile and event-driven. The US–Iran conflict continues to be a key overhang. While there are intermittent signs of de-escalation, the risk of renewed escalation persists, keeping markets highly sensitive to geopolitical developments.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the deepening conflict in the Middle East has renewed a risk-off tone across global markets, with U.S. equities closing sharply lower overnight. Asian markets followed suit, with South Korea’s KOSPI dropping more than 3% and Japan’s Nikkei falling over 1.5%, signaling a weak start for Indian equities. The broader market backdrop remains fragile, with crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, currency movements, and foreign investor flows set to shape the near-term direction.

Brent crude prices remain elevated and volatile, hovering in the $100–107 range, once again raising concerns around inflation, input costs, and broader macro pressures. The Indian rupee continues to remain under pressure, weighed down by elevated crude prices, sustained FII outflows, and a stronger U.S. dollar. It has recently slipped beyond the 94 mark, touching record lows. Foreign institutional investors continue to be consistent sellers, with notable outflows through March, reflecting global risk aversion and cautious positioning by institutional capital. 

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to open on a cautious to negative note, with early signs pointing towards consolidation or profit booking at higher levels. Technically, 23,500 continues to act as a strong resistance zone, and any inability to move past this level may keep the index under pressure.
On the downside, a break below 23,300 would reinforce the resistance at higher levels and increase the probability of a range-bound to mildly corrective phase. The 23,050–23,000 zone remains immediate support, which was earlier a resistance area and has now turned into a demand zone. If this support breaks decisively, selling pressure could intensify, dragging the index towards 22,750, followed by a stronger support base near 22,600. The short-term structure remains cautious. Sustaining above resistance is critical for continuation, while a breakdown below support can shift the bias towards further weakness.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to open weak, tracking the broader market tone. The index has recently failed to sustain near the 54,000–54,100 resistance zone and has witnessed gradual profit booking, indicating a lack of strong follow-through buying at higher levels. On the upside, 54,000–54,100 remains a crucial resistance band. Only a sustained move above this zone can revive bullish momentum and push the index towards 54,400–54,600. On the downside, 53,300–53,000 acts as immediate support. A decisive break below this range could accelerate weakness towards 52,700–52,500, and further selling pressure may drag the index towards the 52,000 zone, where some buying interest is expected. Overall, the near-term bias remains cautious. Unless Bank Nifty decisively reclaims and holds above 54,000, selling on rallies is likely to continue.