Spotlight

Indian markets are likely to remain vulnerable after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, its first hike since 2023, while signaling the possibility of another increase later this year. The hawkish stance, aimed at addressing persistent inflationary pressures, including those linked to elevated oil prices has pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher and strengthened the dollar, with the Dollar Index trading around 100.35. In India, the 10-year government bond yield remains elevated near 7.09%, reflecting pressure from higher global yields, elevated crude oil prices and continued weakness in the rupee.

Asian markets are trading on a mixed note in early trade, with the Nikkei 225 gaining around 0.40% while South Korea’s KOSPI remains largely flat. The uneven regional cues, alongside elevated oil prices, higher U.S. Treasury yields and persistent currency pressures, are likely to keep investor sentiment cautious.  

Crude oil prices have eased slightly from their recent highs, with WTI trading in the $101–102-per-barrel range. The pullback followed indications from Saudi Arabia that it could supply additional crude through Oman amid disruptions to its pipeline network. However, constraints around the Strait of Hormuz and continuing geopolitical risks are keeping the outlook for oil markets uncertain.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was “hopefully toward the end” of the Iran war and indicated that direct contact had taken place with Tehran. Markets, however, remain cautious as they await a clear and lasting resolution to the conflict. 

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 broader technical structure remains weak, with the index continuing to face selling pressure at higher levels. On the upside, the 23,300–23,400 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance area. A sustained and decisive breakout above 23,400 could provide some relief and support a recovery towards the 23,500–23,600 region. However, this zone remains a stronger hurdle as it coincides with the recent breakdown area and could attract fresh selling pressure.  
 
On the downside, the 23,100–23,070 zone remains the crucial support region to watch, forming an important lower boundary of the broader trading range. A decisive break below 23,070 could further weaken the technical structure and expose the index to the 23,000 mark and potentially lower support levels. Momentum indicators remain subdued, while the index continues to trade below key moving averages, indicating that the near-term trend remains under pressure. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty showed comparatively better resilience during Wednesday’s session; however, the broader technical structure remains weak as the index continues to trade below key moving averages. On the upside, 56,400 is likely to act as the immediate resistance level, followed by the stronger 56,700–56,800 zone. A sustained breakout above 56,800 would be required to strengthen the recovery structure, while failure to sustain above this zone could keep the index vulnerable to renewed selling pressure at higher levels.
 
On the downside, 55,800–55,700 remains the crucial support region. A decisive break below 55,700 could extend the decline towards the 55,500 level and reinforce the broader corrective trend. Momentum indicators remain weak, indicating that the recent recovery has yet to develop stronger bullish momentum. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious. Sustained trading above 56,800 would be important to improve the technical structure, while a break below 55,700 could increase downside pressure.