Global equity markets are trading with a pronounced risk-off bias following sharp losses in the overnight U.S. session. Weakness in global technology stocks and commodities continues to weigh on sentiment, with selling pressure extending into Asian markets. Japan’s Nikkei is down nearly 0.8%, while South Korea’s Kospi is under significant pressure, sliding 3–4%, led by heavy tech stock liquidation.
The ongoing correction in global technology names reflects a combination of stretched valuations, rising AI-related cost concerns, and muted investor response to recent big-tech earnings and outlooks. Broader risk aversion is evident, with capital rotating toward U.S. Treasuries and other safe-haven assets, keeping global sentiment fragile in the near term.

Against this backdrop, Indian equity markets are expected to open flat to mildly negative, with investors adopting a cautious stance ahead of today’s RBI Monetary Policy announcement. While the recent trade agreement continues to provide an underlying positive backdrop by easing external headwinds and supporting export-oriented sectors, the sharp multi-day rally has clearly entered a consolidation phase. Profit-taking at higher levels and the continued absence of sustained FII participation, despite the trade-led optimism, remain near-term drags on sentiment. Domestic fundamentals such as capex momentum and macro stability remain supportive, but near-term market direction is likely to be driven primarily by cues from the RBI’s policy stance and external factors. 

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 remains locked in a consolidation phase after repeated failures to sustain above the 25,800 zone, highlighting selling pressure and profit-booking at elevated levels. The 25,600–25,500 band, which coincides with recent swing lows and the 20- and 100-day EMAs, is acting as a crucial support zone. On the upside, strong resistance persists at 25,800–25,900, with the psychological 26,000 level acting as a higher hurdle. RSI near 51 reflects neutral momentum but with a gradual downward drift, indicating some loss of strength. A sustained move above 25,800 would help preserve the broader bullish structure and open the door for a retest of recent highs. Conversely, a decisive break below 25,500 could trigger a deeper corrective move toward the 25,000 region. For today, the bias remains range-bound with a mild negative tilt if 25,600 is breached decisively.

Bank Nifty 

Bank Nifty closed above the key psychological 60,000 mark on Thursday, trading comfortably above all major moving averages (20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day EMAs). However, the rebound from the 59,950–59,900 demand zone lacked volume and momentum expansion, suggesting that the move was driven largely by short covering rather than fresh long accumulation. The RSI, hovering around 56, has flattened, indicating cooling momentum rather than a trend reversal, while the MACD remains in positive territory but continues to lack strong follow-through. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 59,800, followed by the 59,500–59,000 zone if broader market weakness intensifies. On the upside, the 60,400–60,500 band continues to act as a stiff resistance area. A decisive close above this zone, accompanied by strong volumes, would be required for the index to resume its uptrend. In the near term, Bank Nifty is likely to remain range-bound unless there is a meaningful shift in overall market sentiment following the RBI policy outcome.