Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious note, with a mixed global backdrop likely to keep investor sentiment guarded. Wall Street ended sharply lower ahead of earnings from major U.S. technology companies, reflecting persistent concerns over AI-related valuations and elevated capital spending, while Asian markets are trading with a modest positive bias in early trade, offering little directional conviction. GIFT Nifty futures are hovering around the 24,300 mark, indicating a flat to marginally positive opening compared with the Nifty's previous close at 24250. 

On the monetary policy front, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at its second policy meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, broadly in line with market expectations. While the decision removes a key near-term uncertainty for global markets, the split among policymakers reinforced expectations that the path of future rate cuts remains highly data dependent. Investors will now closely monitor upcoming U.S. inflation and economic growth data for fresh clues on the Fed's policy trajectory. In the aftermath of the decision, gold prices advanced as investors adopted a more defensive stance amid continued uncertainty over the interest-rate outlook and geopolitical risks.

Geopolitical concerns have also returned to the forefront after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran was "going to get a beating," raising fears of a renewed escalation in the Middle East following a brief period of relative calm. The heightened tensions have kept the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets, with WTI crude oil holding firm in the $83–84 per barrel range. Persistently elevated oil prices remain a key risk for Indian markets, given their potential impact on inflation, the current account balance and the trajectory of the Indian rupee.

Institutional flows continue to underpin sentiment. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers of approximately ?2,982 crore in the previous session, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) added a further ?998 crore in the cash market, reflecting improving risk appetite despite an uncertain global macroeconomic and geo-political backdrop.
 
Regional cues remain mixed. Asian markets are trading largely flat in early trade, although Japan's Nikkei 225 has outperformed, gaining more than 1%, while South Korea's Kospi remains modestly higher, suggesting selective buying rather than broad-based risk appetite across the region.  

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to hold a constructive undertone after reclaiming the 24,200 level, with the broader structure pointing toward a gradual recovery. That said, the 24,300–24,400 band remains the immediate hurdle, coinciding with the 200-day EMA, making it a technically significant resistance confluence. A decisive close above this zone would reinforce bullish momentum and open the door for an extension toward the 24,500–24,600 region.
 
On the downside, the 24,150–24,000 zone is likely to act as the first line of support, reinforced by a strong buildup of Put Open Interest at these strikes. Sustaining above this range will be critical to keep the ongoing recovery structure intact. Conversely, a decisive breakdown below 24,000 could trigger profit-booking pressure, pulling the index toward the next support band at 23,900–23,800. Overall, the near-term bias remains constructive.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautiously positive bias, having stabilized above its key support levels. Technically, the 57,300–57,400 zone stands out as the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above this band could accelerate buying momentum and pave the way for an advance toward the 57,800–58,000 region.
 
On the downside, the 57,000–56,900 zone serves as the immediate support area. Holding above this range will be essential to preserve the current recovery structure. Conversely, a decisive break below this level could invite fresh selling pressure, dragging the index toward the 56,700–56,600 support zone, a level that also aligns with the 100-day EMA, adding further technical significance to this band. While, a decisive break below 56,700–56,600, however, would weaken the structure and shift the bias toward caution.