Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a constructive bias, though investors are likely to remain selective as mixed global cues temper optimism over progress toward a Middle East agreement.

Wall Street ended on a mixed note overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.49% to a record close as hopes of a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz supported economically sensitive stocks. The S&P 500 slipped 0.17%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined about 0.83%, snapping a four-session winning streak. Technology shares came under pressure after SpaceX and AMD reported solid results but failed to ease investor concerns over heavy AI-related capital spending and the pace of returns from those investments.

Asian equities are trading lower this morning as investors booked profits following the recent AI-driven rally. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has fallen more than 1%, led by weakness in electronics stocks, while South Korea’s Kospi is down sharply as selling returned to technology and semiconductor names.

Against this backdrop, GIFT Nifty futures are trading in the 24,650–24,675 region, compared with the Nifty’s previous close of 24,624, pointing to a flat-to-marginally positive opening for domestic equities rather than a decisive gap-up start.

On the geopolitical front, Iran and Oman have reached an understanding on the geographic coordinates of a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that commercial traffic could begin to normalize. However, key details remain under discussion, and the arrangement does not yet guarantee the security of the waterway, leaving markets vulnerable to fresh headlines.

WTI crude oil is trading near $75 a barrel after a volatile session, offering relief to India’s inflation outlook, import bill, and corporate input costs. The decline in energy prices has also eased some pressure on global bond yields, although crude remains highly sensitive to the progress of negotiations and the restoration of shipping flows through Hormuz.

Gold prices have extended their gains despite the improvement in geopolitical sentiment, supported by softer Treasury yields, a weaker dollar, and reduced expectations of aggressive monetary tightening. The metal’s resilience suggests that investors are retaining some defensive exposure while awaiting greater clarity on the Middle East agreement and the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to exhibit a constructive technical outlook, with the index holding above key support levels despite intermittent bouts of profit-booking. Its ability to sustain above the crucial 24,500 support zone signals that the underlying recovery trend remains intact. However, a decisive and sustained move above 24,600 will be essential to reinforce bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance toward the 24,800–25,000 region.
 
On the downside, the 24,500 level continues to serve as the immediate support, followed by the 24,400–24,300 zone. A decisive break below 24,400, however, could trigger fresh profit-booking and drag the index toward the 24,200 region. Overall, the near-term technical outlook continues to retain its constructive bias. Sustaining above 24,500 keeps the ongoing recovery structure intact.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to trade with a cautious bias, while continuing to hold above all its key daily EMAs, including the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day averages, indicating that the broader medium-term technical structure remains intact. From a technical standpoint, the 57,800–57,900 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance. A decisive and sustained move above the 58,000 psychological mark would strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for an advance toward the 58,200–58,300 region.
 
On the downside, the 57,300–57,400 zone is expected to provide immediate support. Holding above this band will be crucial to preserve the prevailing recovery structure, while a decisive break below 57,300 could trigger fresh selling pressure and drag the index toward the 57,000 psychological mark. Momentum indicators remain balanced, with the RSI hovering in the mid-50s, reflecting a neutral reading that leaves room for further upside once stronger buying interest emerges.