Spotlight

The domestic market is likely to remain under pressure, with a combination of escalating geopolitical risks, elevated crude oil prices and weak global cues weighing on investor sentiment. WTI crude has climbed to the $102–103 a barrel range amid concerns that the US could resume military strikes against Iran, raising the risk of a prolonged energy-price shock. For India, persistently elevated crude oil prices remain a key macroeconomic headwind, weighing on investor risk appetite and limiting the prospects for a sustained recovery in domestic equities. 

Overseas sentiment has also weakened, with Asian equities trading lower in early deals. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has fallen more than 1%, while South Korea’s KOSPI has declined over 3%, as concerns mount over the rising capital requirements of major technology companies to fund artificial intelligence investments. The uncertainty surrounding the returns on these investments is weighing on technology stocks, particularly semiconductor shares, adding to the pressure on regional markets.

On the domestic front, the ongoing earnings season is likely to keep stock-specific activity in focus. Investors will closely assess quarterly performance, management commentary and forward guidance for signs of demand resilience and earnings visibility. While company-specific developments could offer opportunities, the broader market is likely to remain sensitive to external risks.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 staged a strong recovery in the previous session, reclaiming its 20-day EMA. However, the index continues to trade below its key medium- and long-term moving averages, indicating that the broader technical structure remains weak despite the recent improvement. The 23,000 mark remains the immediate psychological hurdle, followed by the 23,200 resistance zone. Sustained buying above these levels would be necessary to strengthen the recovery.
 
On the downside, 22,800 is the immediate support zone, followed by 22,500. A decisive break below these levels could revive selling pressure. The near-term outlook has improved, but sustained trading above 23,000 is essential to confirm stronger upward momentum.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is displaying improving short-term momentum following its recent rebound, although the index continues to trade below its key medium and long-term moving averages, indicating that the broader technical structure remains weak. The 55,000–55,200 zone represents the immediate resistance range. A sustained breakout above 55,200 could strengthen the recovery and pave the way for an upward move towards 55,600–55,800.
 
On the downside, 54,400–54,600 forms the immediate support zone, followed by 54,000–53,800. A decisive breakdown below these support levels could weaken the ongoing recovery and revive selling pressure. The near-term outlook remains cautiously positive following the recent rebound. However, sustained buying above 55,200 is essential to reinforce upward momentum and improve the broader technical outlook.

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Analyst Certification: I/We, Ajith Kamti Research Analyst, authors, and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. NISM Research Analyst registration number – NISM-202500242249.