Spotlight

Optimism surrounding a potential India–US trade deal could offer some support to domestic equities, but a sustained recovery may prove difficult as elevated crude oil prices, rising global bond yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty weigh on investor sentiment. WTI crude is trading around $98–99 a barrel, while Brent is hovering near $110, keeping macroeconomic risks firmly in focus.

Developments involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remain a key source of uncertainty for global markets. Any escalation in tensions could disrupt energy supplies and drive oil prices higher, while signs of meaningful de-escalation may ease pressure on risk assets. Until there is greater clarity on the geopolitical front, investors are likely to remain cautious.

On the domestic front, the September-quarter earnings season is expected to drive stock-specific movements, with investors scrutinising revenue growth, margins and management guidance for signs of resilience amid rising input costs. Foreign institutional investor flows will also be closely watched for indications of whether the recent recovery has the backing of sustained overseas buying.

Asian equities are offering a more positive lead, buoyed by renewed interest in artificial intelligence-related stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has reportedly advanced more than 1%, while South Korea’s KOSPI has gained over 3%. However, the strength in regional markets may translate into only limited gains for Indian equities, with elevated oil prices and geopolitical risks likely to temper risk appetite.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 remains vulnerable after surrendering a significant portion of the gains recorded over the previous sessions on Monday. The decline reflects renewed selling pressure amid cautious market sentiment. The index is now trading near its 20-day moving average, making the 22,800–22,900 zone crucial for near-term stability. On the upside, 23,000–23,200 represents the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above 23,200 could improve the short-term technical structure and open the way towards 23,300–23,400. However, failure to reclaim this zone could keep the index in a consolidation phase.
 
On the downside, 22,800 remains the immediate support level, followed by 22,600. A decisive break below 22,800 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to further downside. Momentum indicators remain mixed, with the RSI hovering near the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD continues to indicate some underlying positive momentum despite the latest price weakness. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with the index requiring sustained buying above the immediate resistance zone to regain upward momentum.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty has witnessed a pullback from its recent highs and is approaching a key short-term support zone. The index faces immediate resistance in the 55,800–56,000 range, and a sustained move above 56,000 could reinforce recovery prospects and improve the near-term technical outlook. However, failure to break above this zone may keep the index under pressure, with selling interest likely to emerge at higher levels.
 
On the downside, 55,300–55,200 serves as the immediate support zone, followed by 55,000. A decisive breach of 55,000 could trigger further weakness, dragging the index towards the 54,800–54,500 range. Overall, the technical outlook remains cautious, with the 55,000 support level and the 56,000 resistance zone likely to determine the index’s next directional move.