Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to remain cautious as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and the resulting rebound in crude oil prices continue to cloud investor sentiment. Adding to the cautious backdrop, growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could keep monetary policy tighter for longer are weighing on risk appetite across emerging markets.

Crude oil remains a key monitorable for domestic markets, with WTI trading in the $86–87 per barrel range as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keep concerns over energy supplies elevated. 

Offsetting some of these external headwinds is the resilience of the domestic economy. India's real GDP expanded 7.8% in the first quarter of FY27, comfortably exceeding both the RBI's 7% projection and market expectations. Robust domestic consumption, sustained investment activity and healthy manufacturing growth underpinned the stronger-than-expected performance despite an increasingly challenging global environment. The stronger growth print is expected to provide support to investor sentiment and help cushion downside risks for domestic equities.

Looking ahead, the U.S. jobs report will be the next major global catalyst, with investors closely watching the data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory, Treasury yields and broader global risk appetite.

Global market cues remain mixed. Wall Street's major indices closed lower overnight, while Asian markets are trading on a mixed note in early trade. Japan's Nikkei 225 is marginally lower, while South Korea's Kospi has edged into positive territory after recovering from losses of around 1% earlier in the session. 

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to remain under pressure, with the index facing sustained selling interest at higher levels and failing to generate meaningful recovery attempts. The 24,200 zone remains the immediate resistance, followed by the broader 24,300–24,400 region, which continues to act as a significant overhead hurdle and cap upside momentum. Strong follow-through buying at higher levels would be required to improve the near-term technical structure and reinforce bullish momentum.
 
On the downside, the 24,000 psychological level remains the crucial support zone. The index has repeatedly attracted buying interest around this level during recent declines, making it an important downside cushion. However, a decisive break below 24,000 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 23,900–23,800 region. Momentum indicators remain subdued, with the RSI hovering around the mid-40s, indicating weak momentum, while the MACD continues to signal a lack of strength. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious-to-weak.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to display comparatively stronger technical resilience, having closed above the crucial 58,000 psychological mark in the previous session and sustaining above its key 20-day, 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs. However, maintaining levels above 58,000 will be important to reinforce the prevailing recovery structure and could pave the way towards the 58,300–58,500 region.  
 
On the downside, 57,600–57,500 is likely to act as the immediate support zone, followed by the stronger 57,300–57,200 region, which is also closely aligned with the 50-day EMA. Holding above these levels would help preserve the broader technical structure, while a decisive break below the support zone could invite renewed selling pressure. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautiously constructive.