Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to remain under pressure as renewed strength in crude oil prices and a sharp rise in global bond yields continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The expiry of the temporary 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire without any meaningful diplomatic breakthrough has renewed concerns over a prolonged disruption to energy supplies, driving crude oil prices higher and pushing long-term U.S. Treasury yields to multi-year highs. The combination has triggered a broad risk-off mood across global financial markets.

Global cues remain weak. Wall Street ended lower overnight for a third consecutive session, while Asian markets opened sharply weaker. Early indications from GIFT Nifty futures, trading around the 24,190 mark compared with the Nifty's previous close of 24,154, point to a largely flat opening for domestic equities.

Crude oil remains firmly in focus, with WTI trading in the $84–85 per barrel range as the U.S.–Iran standoff continues with no clear path toward a negotiated resolution.

U.S. equities extended their losing streak as a sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks, coupled with rising Treasury yields, weighed heavily on sentiment. The semiconductor index tumbled around 5.5%, while the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades, reflecting growing investor caution. The weakness spilled over into Asia, where Japan's Nikkei 225 fell more than 2% and South Korea's Kospi dropped over 4%, led by steep declines in semiconductor, electronics and business-services stocks.

Investor attention will now turn to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting, which are expected to provide further insight into policymakers' views on inflation, economic growth and the interest-rate outlook following last month's unusually divided decision. Any shift in expectations surrounding the Fed's policy trajectory could have important implications for U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar and capital flows into emerging markets, including India.


Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to witness continued selling pressure at higher levels, with the near-term technical structure remaining weak following the recent decline. On the upside, the 24,250–24,300 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above 24,400 could help stabilize the near-term structure and trigger a recovery towards the 24,500–24,600 region. However, unless the index decisively reclaims this zone, recovery attempts are likely to attract selling pressure.  
 
On the downside, a decisive break below 24,150  could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 24,000–23,800 zone. Holding above 24,000 will therefore be important to prevent further deterioration in the short-term technical setup. Momentum remains weak, with the recent price action indicating continued downside pressure. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious to bearish.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to remain range-bound with a cautious undertone, as the index continues to consolidate within the broader 57,100–58,000 range. The index has shown comparatively better resilience than Nifty but remains vulnerable to selling pressure at higher levels. On the upside, 57,500 remains the immediate resistance level, followed by the stronger 57,800–58,000 zone.  
 
On the downside, 57,200–57,100 remains the crucial support region. While a decisive break below 57,000 could weaken the near-term bias and invite fresh selling pressure towards the 56,800–56,600 region. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious.