Spotlight

Indian equity markets are set for a cautiously optimistic start, though lingering geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to temper risk appetite, with investors expected to remain selective and prone to booking profits at higher levels.Crude oil, though off its recent peak, remains at relatively elevated levels, with WTI hovering near the $83–84 per barrel mark. Diplomatic progress between Iran and Oman on managing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has helped ease some of the acute supply-risk premium that had built into prices in recent weeks.

Global cues are mixed but broadly supportive. Wall Street's benchmark indices closed largely flat to higher overnight, even as the latest PCE inflation print - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge - came in slightly above expectations, leaving the near-term policy outlook uncertain. Sentiment in technology and semiconductor stocks, however, was clearly lifted by Nvidia's blowout quarterly results, which triggered a broad rally across AI-linked names in the U.S., helping the Nasdaq end about 1.5% higher.

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning, with Japan's Nikkei notably firmer while South Korea's Kospi remains on the back foot, reflecting the push-and-pull between AI-driven optimism on one side and caution over the interest-rate outlook on the other.

Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote, the week's most closely watched macro event. With the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge coming in slightly above expectations, investors will parse his remarks for fresh clues on the September policy path and the broader interest-rate outlook.  

On the geopolitical front, the Strait of Hormuz remains the key variable to watch. Iran and Oman have reportedly reached an initial understanding on managing navigation and traffic through the waterway, and shipping flows have reportedly continued, although Tehran has cautioned that a durable resolution will require more than a bilateral arrangement with Oman. Until the situation is fully resolved, crude oil prices, the rupee and broader risk sentiment are likely to remain sensitive to fresh headlines from West Asia. 

Technical view
 
Nifty 50
 
Nifty 50 is likely to maintain a cautious bias as the index continues to face selling pressure at higher levels. The 24,300–24,400 region, which also coincides with the 200-day EMA, remains the key resistance zone. On the upside, the 24,300–24,400 zone remains a crucial resistance band that continues to cap recovery attempts. A sustained breakout and close above 24,400 would be needed to improve the technical structure and revive upward momentum toward higher levels.
 
On the downside, 24,100–24,000 now forms the immediate support zone. A sustained break below the 24,000 psychological mark could drag the index toward the 23,800 zone. The RSI stands around 43, below the neutral mark, indicating weakening momentum. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious. The index needs to decisively reclaim 24,400 to establish stronger bullish momentum, while sustained trading below 24,200 could keep the index subdued and limit further recovery attempts.
 

Bank Nifty
 
Bank Nifty continues to display comparatively stronger technical resilience. A sustained move above the 58,000 psychological mark is critical for improving momentum toward the 58,300–58,500 zone. The index has printed intraday highs above 58,000 in recent sessions but has repeatedly failed to sustain above this level, keeping the resistance intact.
 
On the downside, 57,600–57,500 is the immediate support; a break below this band could drag the index back toward 57,300–57,200 and lower. The RSI has edged lower and slipped below its signal line, reflecting fading momentum and reinforcing a more cautious near-term stance on the index. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious. The index needs to decisively reclaim 58,000 to establish stronger bullish momentum, while sustained break below 57,500 could keep the index subdued and limit further recovery attempts.