Indian equity markets are set to open on a cautious and potentially volatile note, as elevated crude prices and persistent geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Brent crude remains firm in the $110–113 per barrel range, reflecting ongoing disruptions to supply and reinforcing inflation concerns. The U.S.–Iran conflict shows little sign of resolution, with negotiations making limited progress. Continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping the risk premium in global markets elevated, leaving investors wary of fresh supply shocks and their broader economic impact.

Global equities are trading on a mixed to weaker footing, with higher energy costs and geopolitical risks dampening risk appetite. Asian markets are also reflecting a cautious bias, as oil price volatility and uncertainty around diplomatic developments keep participants on edge. On the flows front, foreign institutional investors remain net sellers amid global risk aversion, while domestic institutional investors continue to offer some support, helping to cushion downside moves.

Overall, sentiment remains fragile and highly sensitive to news flow. Elevated crude prices, unresolved geopolitical tensions, currency pressures and persistent foreign outflows are likely to keep markets under pressure, with near-term direction hinging on oil price trends and any meaningful progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations. 

Technical view 

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious to mildly negative bias, hovering near the 24,000 zone following recent weakness. The index is encountering persistent supply pressure in the 24,150–24,200 range, which is aligned with the 50-day EMA, indicating limited upside conviction. From a technical perspective, a decisive move above 24,200 could trigger a recovery toward the 24,300–24,400 resistance band, which remains a critical hurdle for further upside. 

On the downside, a sustained break below the key 23,800 support zone may accelerate weakness toward the 23,600–23,400 levels. Momentum indicators are gradually weakening, reflecting fading strength in the current trend. Overall, the outlook remains cautious, with meaningful strength likely to emerge only on a sustained breakout above key resistance levels.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is exhibiting weakness, reflecting recent pressure in the banking space, and is currently trading near the 55,400 zone. On the upside, the 55,900–56,000 range now acts as an immediate hurdle, followed by a stronger resistance band at 56,800–57,000. A sustained breakout above this broader zone will be required to revive momentum and extend gains toward the 57,500–58,000 levels.
 
On the downside, a decisive break below 55,200–55,000 could accelerate selling pressure toward the 54,800–54,600 support band, indicating further near-term weakness. Momentum indicators are weakening, with the RSI trending lower near 48, suggesting increasing downside bias. Overall, the outlook remains slightly negative, and a decisive move beyond key support or resistance levels will be crucial in determining the next directional trend.