Spotlight

Indian equities are likely to open on a cautiously positive note, with GIFT Nifty futures trading above 22,600 against the Nifty 50’s previous close of 22,422, pointing to an early recovery attempt. Softer-than-expected U.S. employment data has eased some immediate concerns over further Federal Reserve tightening at its October meeting, offering a degree of support to global risk appetite. However, elevated Treasury yields, persistent foreign selling and renewed geopolitical risks could limit the upside and keep investors guarded through the session.

Crude oil remains central to the market outlook. WTI is trading around $90 a barrel, while Brent remains near $102, following an initial pullback on expectations of improved energy supply and diplomatic progress. That optimism has since been tempered by renewed tensions in the Middle East. Tehran has warned that the Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen until its conditions are met, while Yemen’s Houthis have claimed attacks targeting Saudi Aramco facilities. The developments have revived concerns over regional energy supplies, leaving crude prices vulnerable to further volatility.

Foreign institutional selling remains a significant overhang for domestic equities. Persistent FII outflows, alongside elevated U.S. Treasury yields, rupee weakness and geopolitical uncertainty, continue to weigh on investor confidence and the relative appeal of Indian equities. Any sustained recovery will therefore require not only supportive global cues but also signs of stabilization in foreign portfolio flows.

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting is another major domestic catalyst, with the policy decision scheduled for October 7. Elevated global crude prices, rising food costs and concerns over agricultural output have sharpened the focus on the RBI’s assessment of inflation risks and its policy stance. Investors will be looking for signals on how the central bank balances price stability, growth and currency pressures.

Oil markets are also receiving mixed signals from OPEC+. The group has kept November production targets unchanged despite geopolitical risks and disruptions to regional exports. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has unexpectedly reduced its November Arab Light official selling price to Asia by $3 a barrel, marking its steepest discount since June 2020.

Asian markets are trading largely higher in early trade, providing a supportive external backdrop. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up around 2%, while South Korean markets are closed for a holiday.

The early setup suggests scope for a positive opening, but the sustainability of any recovery will depend on whether improving global risk appetite can offset persistent domestic and external headwinds. 

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 remains under sustained selling pressure after extending its decline for the eighth consecutive week, keeping the broader technical structure firmly weak. On the upside, 22,600 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, followed by the 22,800–23,000 region. A sustained move above 22,600 could trigger a short-term relief rally and support a recovery towards 22,800–23,000.
 
On the downside, 22,200 remains the immediate and crucial support level. A decisive break below 22,200 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 22,000 mark. Overall, the technical bias remains bearish, although the deeply oversold RSI indicates scope for a short-term recovery attempt. A sustained move above the immediate resistance would be required to signal meaningful improvement in the near-term structure.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is showing some signs of easing downside momentum, although the broader technical structure remains weak. On the upside, 55,000–55,200 remains the immediate resistance zone. A sustained breakout above 55,200 could strengthen the recovery momentum and potentially trigger a stronger pullback towards the 56,000 level.  
 
On the downside, 54,000 remains the immediate support, followed by the crucial 53,800 zone. A decisive break below 53,800 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to lower support levels. The RSI continues to remain close to the oversold territory, while the MACD maintains a bearish trend, indicating that a sustained reversal is yet to be confirmed. Overall, the near-term outlook for Bank Nifty remains cautiously bearish.