Spotlight

Indian equities are likely to begin the week on a positive note as investors take comfort from a temporary easing in geopolitical tensions, lifting risk sentiment across global markets. Market sentiment strengthened after the Trump administration signaled a pause in further military strikes on Iran to allow diplomatic efforts to continue, easing immediate concerns over a broader regional conflict. Reflecting the improved mood, Gift Nifty futures are trading around 23,938, compared with the previous Nifty close of 23,767, indicating a gap-up opening for domestic equities.

The diplomatic overture has also triggered a sharp retreat in crude oil prices, with WTI falling more than 6% from recent highs near $93 per barrel to around $84, while Brent has eased to approximately $88 after briefly crossing the psychologically important $100 mark last week. A sustained decline in energy prices would help unwind some of the inflationary pressures that have unsettled financial markets in recent weeks, supporting global growth expectations and reducing the risk of a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve. Even so, investors are likely to remain cautious, with developments in the Middle East continuing to be the primary driver of market sentiment and commodity prices.

 
Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to trade with a cautious bias, as the index continues to hold below its key resistance levels, reflecting persistent selling pressure despite the recent recovery from its lows. From a technical standpoint, the 23,800–24,000 zone remains the immediate resistance band, a region that also coincides closely with both the 50-day and 20-day EMAs. A sustained move above this zone could support a recovery towards the 24,200 level, the next major hurdle, though the index will need to reclaim and hold above 24,000 to meaningfully improve the broader technical structure.
 
On the downside, the 23,700–23,600 zone continues to serve as the immediate support. A decisive break below this region could accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards the 23,500–23,300 support zone. Overall, the near-term technical outlook stays bearish. A sustained move above 24,000 is essential to revive sentiment, while a break below 23,600 could trigger another leg of downside.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to trade with a cautious undertone. From a technical perspective, the 56,800–56,900 zone remains the immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this band could support a recovery towards the 57,200–57,300 region. However, the index will need to reclaim and hold above 57,000 to meaningfully improve the near-term technical outlook and strengthen buying momentum.
 
On the downside, the 56,400–56,300 zone now acts as the immediate support. A decisive break below this region could accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards the 56,000–55,800 support zone. Overall, the near-term technical outlook stays cautiously bearish, with 56,400–56,300 the key level to defend and 56,800–57,000 the zone to reclaim for any meaningful shift in sentiment.