Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautious bias as uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on global risk sentiment. The renewed geopolitical uncertainty has triggered a rebound in crude oil prices, contributing to a weaker close on Wall Street and a subdued start across Asian markets, setting a cautious backdrop for domestic equities.

Investor sentiment remains restrained as negotiations appear to have entered a more complex phase. U.S. President Donald Trump has called for compensation from Iran, while Tehran has reiterated conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts over the timing and durability of any potential agreement. Until greater clarity emerges, markets are likely to remain headline-driven, with investors reluctant to take aggressive directional positions.  

WTI crude oil continues to hold on to its recent gains, trading near the $82-per-barrel mark as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz negotiations keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices. 

Gold also remained well supported, trading close to the $4,400-per-ounce level as investors continued to seek safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. Attention is now shifting to this week's U.S. inflation report, which is expected to provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory and shape expectations for U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and capital flows into emerging markets.

Regional cues remained subdued, with South Korea's Kospi falling nearly 1% in early trade as investors adopted a cautious stance amid the evolving geopolitical backdrop while Japan's Nikkei 225 remained closed for a market holiday. 

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to remain range-bound within the 24,500–24,700 zone in the near term, as the index continues to consolidate within a defined trading range. On the upside, the 24,600–24,700 region remains the key resistance band. A sustained breakout above 24,700 could strengthen buying momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 24,800–25,000 levels.
 
On the downside, 24,500 remains the immediate and crucial support level. The latest options data also indicates significant Put OI around the 24,500 strike, providing some downside cushioning. However, a decisive break below 24,500 could weaken the near-term technical structure and expose the index to the 24,400–24,300 levels. Overall, the bias remains cautiously positive above 24,500, with a decisive breakout above 24,700 or breakdown below 24,500 provides a clear directional signal.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to trade with a cautious bias, with the 57,500–57,300 zone acting as the key support area. On the upside, the 58,000 psychological level remains the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above 58,000–58,100 could strengthen buying momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 58,500 region.
 
On the downside, the 57,500 level is aligned with the 20-day EMA, making it an important near-term support to hold. While, a decisive break below 57,300 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 57,000 mark. Overall, the 57,300–58,000 range remains crucial, with a decisive breakout on either side likely to provide the next directional cue.