Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to remain cautious as elevated crude oil prices, rising U.S. Treasury yields and continued geopolitical uncertainty weigh on overall sentiment. WTI crude is trading around the $93–$94 per barrel range, while Brent remains above the $105 mark following the recent sharp rise in oil prices.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has moved above the 5.20% mark and remains close to multi-year highs, increasing pressure on global financial conditions and reducing the relative attractiveness of emerging-market equities. The rise in global yields, combined with a stronger dollar, has also added pressure on the Indian rupee.

On the geopolitical front, uncertainty remains elevated as diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran remains unclear. Renewed tensions and continued risks around energy supply routes are keeping global investors cautious, with any further escalation capable of pushing crude prices higher again.

Foreign institutional selling has emerged as a significant headwind. FIIs sold approximately 5,027 crore in the previous session, their largest single-day sell-off of the month, while DIIs bought around 4,301 crore.  

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 remains under significant technical pressure after the sharp decline in the last session, with the broader structure staying decisively weak. On the way up, 23,200–23,300 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone. A sustained close above 23,300 could trigger a relief move toward 23,400–23,500, but until that zone is convincingly reclaimed, any bounce is likely to face fresh selling.
 
On the downside, 23,000 stays the key psychological support to watch. This is reinforced by options data, where heavy Put OI is stacked around 23,000, making this an important level for the near-term structure. A decisive breakdown below this level would likely accelerate selling and open the door toward 22,900–22,800. Overall, the near-term setup remains bearish.  While oversold conditions could trigger intermittent relief rallies, a sustained recovery would require the index to reclaim 23,300 and subsequently 23,500.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to remain under pressure, with the near-term technical structure staying weak. On the upside, 55,700–55,800 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, followed by the crucial 56,000 level. A sustained move above 56,000 would be required to improve the technical structure and could support a recovery towards 56,500–56,800.
 
On the downside, 55,300–55,200 remains the immediate support zone, followed by the stronger 55,000–54,800 region. A decisive break below 55,000 could intensify selling pressure and open the way towards lower support levels. Overall, the near-term outlook remains bearish, with sustained trading above 56,000 needed for a meaningful improvement, while a break below 55,000 could extend the downside.