Indian equity markets are expected to open on a cautious note, with renewed geopolitical tensions weighing on investor sentiment. Although a two-week ceasefire had offered some relief earlier, remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump accusing Iran of violations, along with reports of a U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel, have dented confidence in the diplomatic process and introduced fresh uncertainty. 

Adding to the concerns, oil prices have surged sharply, with an approximate 7% spike, amid the approaching ceasefire deadline, intensifying fears of supply disruptions. This escalation has reversed the recent decline in crude prices, with Brent crude now trading in the $95–98 per barrel range. These developments have dampened earlier optimism and heightened uncertainty surrounding negotiations, keeping markets on edge. Elevated geopolitical risks may lead to renewed FII outflows or reduced participation, as risk aversion increases.

Meanwhile, the ongoing Q4 earnings season will continue to drive stock-specific movements; however, the broader market direction will remain largely influenced by geopolitical developments and crude oil price trends. Overall, market sentiment has shifted to cautious with heightened uncertainty, driven by escalating tensions and rising oil prices. The near-term outlook remains highly volatile and news-driven, with direction dependent on further developments in the U.S.–Iran situation, crude oil movements, and FII flow dynamics.

Technical views

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is currently trading near the 24,300–24,400 zone, continuing its recovery and holding just above its 50-day EMA, indicating improving short-term sentiment. The index is exhibiting gradual strength, although overall momentum remains moderate. From a technical perspective, 24,400 continues to act as an immediate resistance level, and a sustained breakout above this zone will be crucial to extend the upmove towards the 24,800–25,000 range. On the downside, key support is placed near the 24,000 psychological level, followed by a stronger base around 23,800, which is expected to act as a significant demand area. Holding above these levels will be important to maintain the current recovery structure. Overall, the outlook remains cautious, however, a decisive breakout above resistance levels is essential to confirm further upside momentum.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is trading with a cautious undertone, consolidating near the 56,500–56,700 zone following its recent recovery. The index is encountering supply pressure at higher levels, resulting in limited upside follow-through. From a technical standpoint, the 56,800–57,000 range remains a key resistance zone, and a decisive breakout above this band is required to push the index towards the 57,500–58,000 levels. On the downside, immediate support is placed near the 55,800–55,700 zone, followed by a stronger base around 55,500. Holding above these levels will be crucial to sustain the ongoing recovery trend. Overall, the outlook remains cautious, with consolidation near resistance. A breakout above key levels will be necessary to confirm continuation of the uptrend.