Spotlight

Indian equity markets look set for a cautious start, with GIFT Nifty trading marginally lower near 25,270, compared with the previous session’s Nifty close of 25,299, following a volatile trading session. 

India’s retail inflation rose to 6.09% in October from 5.54% in September, its highest level in two years and above the RBI’s 6% upper tolerance limit, with food inflation climbing to 8.94%. The data keeps the rate outlook hawkish ahead of the RBI’s December 4 policy meeting and leaves the market vulnerable to consolidation after its sharp recovery.

Globally, the cues are mixed. Wall Street ended lower overnight after rising bets on a December Fed rate hike pushed US bond yields back above 5%, while small caps underperformed. Sentiment in technology was also hit by the sudden resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, which unsettled the AI trade ahead of the company’s earnings next week. Asian markets are trading firm this morning, with the Nikkei up 1.11% and the Kospi up 1.84%, offering some support to sentiment.

Crude oil has rebounded, with WTI trading within the $88-89 range after attacks by Houthi forces on Saudi energy facilities revived supply concerns. President Trump’s remarks that a deal with Iran was unnecessary further dampened hopes of an early diplomatic resolution, keeping the West Asia conflict and the security of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus.

The near-term outlook remains cautious, with market direction likely to be shaped by movements in crude oil prices, US Treasury yields and foreign portfolio flows. A sustained moderation in oil prices, coupled with continued FPI buying, could provide further support to the rally. However, a renewed rise in bond yields or fresh escalation of tensions in the Gulf could weigh on sentiment and prompt profit-booking at elevated levels.
 
Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is likely to maintain a cautiously bullish bias, although some consolidation may emerge after the recent rally. The immediate resistance is placed in the 25,400–25,500 zone. A decisive breakout above this range could strengthen the upward momentum and open the way towards 25,800 and potentially 26,000.
 
On the downside, 25,200–25,100 remains the immediate support zone, followed by the crucial support near 25,000–24,800. Momentum indicators continue to favour the broader bullish structure, with the RSI near 80 indicating overbought conditions. The MACD remains positive, although the recent moderation in its histogram suggests that the rally could see further consolidation. Overall, the near-term outlook remains bullish but stretched. Sustained trading above 25,200 will be important to preserve the positive structure, while a decisive move above 25,500 could trigger the next leg of the rally.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to demonstrate strong relative strength, outperforming the broader market. The index is approaching an important resistance zone at 61,800–62,000. A sustained breakout above this range could reinforce the bullish momentum and potentially take the index towards fresh record highs.
 
On the downside, 61,200–61,000 is the immediate support zone, followed by 60,600–60,400. Sustained buying interest above the immediate support range will be important to maintain the positive structure, while a decisive break below it could invite profit-booking. Overall, the near-term outlook remains positive, with banking stocks continuing to provide relative strength.