Indian equity markets are expected to remain cautious and volatile amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Ongoing ambiguity around U.S.–Iran tensions and broader developments in the Middle East continues to weigh on risk sentiment, particularly given concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude remains elevated, trading in the $105–108 per barrel range, and continues to act as a key overhang on market sentiment.

Foreign investor flows remain under pressure, with sustained outflows reflecting global risk aversion, elevated bond yields and currency-related concerns. On the domestic front, the Q4 earnings season is driving stock-specific movements, with weakness in the IT sector and select heavyweight stocks weighing on the broader indices, while defensive segments offer only limited support.

Global cues remain mixed to negative, with Asian and other emerging markets reacting cautiously to oil price volatility and geopolitical developments. Overall, sentiment remains fragile and largely news-driven, with elevated crude prices, geopolitical uncertainty, foreign outflows and earnings-related volatility likely to keep markets range-bound with a cautious bias in the near term. 

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is currently hovering in the 23,800–23,900 range, following its recent close below the key 24,000 psychological level, indicating a cautious undertone. From a technical standpoint, 23,800 remains a critical support zone, and a decisive breach below this level could accelerate downside momentum towards the 23,600–23,400 region. On the upside, the 24,300–24,400 band has emerged as an immediate resistance zone, as the previous support has now turned into a supply area. A sustained move above this range will be essential to ease selling pressure and initiate a recovery towards the 24,600–24,800 levels. Overall, the outlook remains cautious with a slight downside bias, unless the index witnesses a sustained breakout above the key resistance levels.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is currently trading near the 56,100–56,000 zone, exhibiting relative resilience compared to the broader market. Immediate support is placed around the 55,800–55,700 range, which remains crucial for maintaining short-term stability. A breakdown below this zone could lead to further downside towards the 55,500–55,200 levels. On the upside, the 57,000 psychological level acts as a key resistance zone, followed by a stronger hurdle near 57,500. A sustained breakout above this range will be required to revive upward momentum and potentially extend gains towards the 58,000 level. Overall, Bank Nifty continues to display relative strength with a cautious undertone, and sustained buying above resistance will be essential to confirm further upside.