Spotlight

Indian equities are likely to find some relief at the open as a sharp pullback in crude oil prices eases one of the key pressures that has weighed on domestic markets in recent sessions. WTI crude has slipped into the $89–$90-a-barrel range, while Brent has retreated toward $95–$96, offering some respite from broader macroeconomic pressures.

The moderation in oil prices, however, comes against a backdrop of continued uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict and the outlook for regional energy supplies. Signs of recovering crude production and improving supply flows have helped push prices lower, but the geopolitical situation remains fluid, leaving energy markets vulnerable to renewed volatility should tensions escalate or negotiations falter.

Foreign investor flows remain a significant headwind. Persistent foreign selling, alongside elevated U.S. Treasury yields, could continue to limit the durability of any recovery in domestic equities.

The external backdrop is nevertheless somewhat more supportive this morning, with Asian equities trading higher and technology stocks leading gains. The stronger regional tone could provide an initial boost to risk appetite, although domestic markets are likely to remain sensitive to movements in crude oil, global yields and foreign flows.

For Indian equities, the immediate setup has improved modestly as the sharp decline in crude removes some pressure from the macroeconomic backdrop. Whether that translates into a sustained recovery will depend on the stability of oil prices, the trajectory of global bond yields and whether foreign selling begins to moderate.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to remain under pressure, with the 22,800 level likely to act as the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above 22,800 could provide some relief and support a recovery towards the 23,000 psychological mark. However, failure to reclaim this level could keep the index vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
 
On the downside, 22,600–22,500 remains the crucial support zone. A decisive break below this region could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 22,300 level. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious to bearish, with sustained trading above 22,800 required to strengthen the recovery structure and improve the near-term outlook.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to remain in a broader weak technical structure, with the recent recovery yet to receive confirmation in the absence of sustained follow-through buying. On the upside, a sustained move above 54,400 could strengthen the recovery momentum and potentially push the index towards the key resistance zone of 54,800–55,000.
 
On the downside, 54,000–53,800 remains an important support region. A decisive break below this zone could extend the weakness towards 53,500 and lower levels. Momentum indicators continue to remain firmly bearish, with the MACD maintaining a downward slope, indicating persistent selling pressure. Overall, the near-term technical outlook for Bank Nifty remains bearish.