Indian equity markets are expected to remain cautious and highly sensitive to news flow, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment despite periodic relief rallies. The latest exchange of fire between the U.S. and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz has further heightened uncertainty, even as Donald Trump called on Tehran to accept the U.S. proposal and reiterated that Washington does “not seek escalation”. The contrast between military confrontation and diplomatic messaging has kept investors on edge, curbing risk appetite and reinforcing a defensive undertone across global financial markets.

Crude oil prices, after cooling sharply toward the $90 level earlier, have once again moved higher and are currently trading in the $95–99 per barrel range, reflecting persistent concerns around supply disruptions and geopolitical instability. Elevated oil prices continue to remain a key macro concern for emerging markets, including India.  
On the institutional flows front, foreign institutional investor (FII) selling pressure has persisted in recent sessions, while steady domestic institutional investor (DII) buying continues to lend support to local equities, helping cushion the broader market from sharper declines.

Overall, the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict remains a significant overhang for global markets, fuelling headline-driven volatility and keeping investor sentiment fragile. Any meaningful progress in diplomatic negotiations or a further easing in oil prices could trigger a relief rally, while any escalation in geopolitical tensions may amplify downside risks and reinforce the prevailing risk-off sentiment.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is currently trading in the 24,300–24,350 zone, reflecting a cautiously positive yet range-bound market structure. Technically, the index continues to hold above the key 24,100–24,000 support zone, which remains critical for sustaining the near-term positive undertone. On the upside, the 24,400–24,500 range continues to act as an immediate resistance band. A sustained breakout above this zone could strengthen momentum further and open the path toward the 24,600–24,800 levels. Momentum indicators are showing gradual improvement, although the RSI near 53 continues to remain neutral, indicating the absence of strong directional momentum. Additionally, follow-through buying at higher levels remains limited. Overall, a sustained buying above resistance levels will be essential for stronger directional clarity and continuation of upward momentum.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is currently trading around the 56,000–56,100 zone, continuing to consolidate following the recent recovery phase. From a technical perspective, the 56,300–56,400 zone remains an important near-term resistance area, and a sustained move above this band could strengthen momentum toward the broader hurdle near the 56,800–57,000 levels. On the downside, the 55,400–55,200 range continues to act as immediate support, and maintaining above this region will be important to preserve the ongoing recovery structure. Momentum indicators remain largely neutral, suggesting the absence of strong directional conviction at current levels. Overall, the broader setup remains mildly constructive with a cautious bias, while stronger momentum is likely to emerge only after a decisive breakout above the immediate resistance zone.