Spotlight

Indian markets are expected to open on a guarded note, with investor sentiment remaining cautious amid rapidly evolving geopolitical developments surrounding the U.S.–Iran situation. While recent signals from Washington suggesting progress in diplomatic negotiations had initially improved risk appetite, fresh accusations from Tehran against Donald Trump over alleged ceasefire violations have once again highlighted the fragility of the ongoing peace process.

Markets are increasingly recognising that, despite intermittent optimism around a possible agreement, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains fluid and vulnerable to sudden reversals. As a result, investors are likely to remain selective and cautious, with sentiment continuing to shift in response to geopolitical headlines and the evolving trajectory of negotiations. 

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have once again turned net sellers in recent sessions, highlighting persistent risk aversion towards emerging markets amid the fluid global backdrop. The renewed selling pressure is likely to limit aggressive upside momentum in the near term despite the improvement in broader macro sentiment.

Crude oil prices have stabilised below the $95 per barrel mark and are currently trading in the $92–94 range, with markets reassessing the near-term geopolitical risk premium amid mixed signals surrounding the U.S.–Iran negotiations. The recent moderation in energy prices continues to provide meaningful relief to the Indian economy by easing concerns around inflation, import costs and pressure on corporate margins.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee has steadied near the 95.6–95.7 zone against the U.S. dollar after recovering from recent record lows. The stabilisation in crude oil prices has helped improve sentiment around the currency, although broader caution persists amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and firm dollar demand.

Technical View  

Nifty 50
 
Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious undertone after failing to sustain above the psychological 24,000 mark in the previous session. Technically, the 23,800 zone remains a crucial immediate support area, and holding above this region will be important to prevent further downside pressure. A decisive break below this support band could accelerate weakness toward the 23,600–23,500 levels.
 
On the upside, the 24,000–24,100 range continues to act as a strong immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above this region could revive bullish momentum and push the index toward the 24,200–24,400 levels. Overall, the near-term technical structure remains cautious unless the index decisively reclaims and sustains above the 24,000 mark.

 
Bank Nifty
 
Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautious to range-bound undertone amid mixed momentum across banking stocks. Technically, the 55,000–54,900 zone remains an important immediate support area, while the broader 54,700–54,600 range continues to act as a strong base support zone.

On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near the 55,400–55,600 zone, and a sustained breakout above this region could improve sentiment further and extend recovery momentum toward the 55,800–56,000 levels. However, failure to reclaim higher resistance levels may keep the index consolidative with a cautious bias. Overall, the near-term technical structure remains range-bound with a cautious undertone, while stronger bullish momentum is likely only on a decisive move above immediate resistance levels.