The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious to mildly weak opening, following yesterday’s sharp 1.41% decline that erased recent gains and wiped out nearly 6.79 lakh crore in market capitalization. The sell-off was broad-based across banking, auto, FMCG, metals, and aviation stocks, reflecting a clear risk-off sentiment driven by escalating US–Iran geopolitical tensions, a hawkish U.S. Fed outlook, a spike in India VIX to 13.46 (up over 10%), and sustained FII pressure, with DIIs also turning net sellers in the previous session. While underlying macro fundamentals remain resilient, near-term sentiment has turned fragile and risk-averse amid mixed global cues and the absence of immediate positive triggers. As a result, trade is likely to remain range-bound with a downside bias until volatility cools or fresh catalysts provide clearer direction.

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 has slipped below its key short-term moving averages  the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs confirming emerging short-term weakness after the recent rebound failure. A bearish engulfing candlestick has formed, covering the prior three sessions and closing at a lower low, signaling distribution at higher levels. Immediate support is placed in the 25,400–25,300 zone, which remains a crucial demand area; a decisive breakdown below this region could open further downside toward 25,100–25,000, and in case of extended selling, even 24,700 near the rising long-term trendline support. On the upside, 25,675 now acts as immediate resistance, aligning with the 50-day EMA and shifting from prior support to a near-term hurdle. A sustained reclaim above this level is required for stabilization. Momentum indicators are mildly bearish, with RSI around 46 and tilting downward, reflecting weakening strength. Overall, the bias remains negative to range-bound, with consolidation possible near the slope support zone.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty ended the previous session lower at 60,740, giving up recent gains and forming a short-term double-top near lifetime highs, indicating profit booking alongside broader market weakness. The index also formed a bearish reversal candle below prior breakout levels, signaling relative underperformance. Immediate support is placed in the 60,500–60,300 zone, coinciding with the 20-day EMA and acting as a key demand band; this region also aligns with the previous swing highs from early January, now turned support. A decisive breach below this area could extend the decline toward 60,000–59,800. On the upside, 61,000 acts as immediate resistance, and a sustained reclaim above this level is necessary to revive recovery momentum. The RSI stands around 52, reflecting a neutral stance but with weakening undertones. Overall, the bias remains mildly negative unless the 60,500 support band holds firmly, with any renewed outperformance dependent on clear signs of stabilization amid broader market pressure.