Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautious bias as renewed strength in crude oil prices and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on investor sentiment. With no meaningful progress in resolving the U.S.–Iran conflict and U.S. President Donald Trump ruling out an extension of the 60-day temporary ceasefire arrangement, concerns over energy supplies remain firmly in focus. WTI crude is trading around the $84-per-barrel mark, keeping inflationary pressures and energy-related risks at the forefront for oil-importing economies such as India.

Global cues remain mixed. Wall Street ended lower overnight, while Asian markets are trading on a divergent note. Japan's Nikkei 225 is down around 0.4% in early trade, whereas South Korea's Kospi has rallied more than 3%, supported by strong gains in semiconductor and electronics stocks. Against this backdrop, GIFT Nifty futures are trading near the 24,300 mark, pointing to a largely flat opening for domestic equities compared with the Nifty's previous close of 24,287.

On the geopolitical front, uncertainty remains elevated after President Trump also threatened Oman, a key mediator in the Strait of Hormuz negotiations with Iran, raising fresh questions over the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. With the strategic shipping route remaining at the centre of the conflict, investors are likely to stay cautious until there is greater clarity on the geopolitical front.

Meanwhile, Gold remains firmly above the $4,400-per-ounce level, supported by expectations of a less restrictive Federal Reserve policy stance, even as continued weakness in global bond markets remains a key risk to monitor.
 
Institutional flows remain mixed, with foreign investor participation continuing to fluctuate, while sustained buying by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continues to provide a strong anchor for the market. Consistent domestic inflows have helped absorb intermittent foreign selling and lent stability to Indian equities.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious bias, as the index remains under pressure at higher levels and struggles to sustain moves above the 24,400 zone. The index is currently trading below both the 20-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating that the short-term trend remains under pressure and that sustained buying is yet to emerge. A sustained breakout above 24,500 could improve the near-term sentiment and support a recovery towards 24,600–24,700.
 
On the downside, 24,300–24,200 remains the crucial support zone. Holding above this level could help the index remain range-bound and allow attempts towards the higher resistance levels. However, a decisive break below 24,200 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards 24,000. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious to mildly  bearish.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to remain range-bound with a relatively stable undertone, provided it sustains above the 57,100–57,200 support region. The 57,800–58,000 zone remains the immediate resistance band, and a sustained breakout above 58,000 could strengthen buying momentum and open the way towards 58,300–58,500.
 
On the downside, 57,200–57,100 remains the immediate support area, followed by the 57,000 zone. Holding above these levels would help preserve the recovery structure, while a decisive break below 57,000 could weaken the near-term bias and invite fresh selling pressure. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious positive to range-bound.