Spotlight

Indian equities are likely to remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with investors also tracking movements in global markets and energy prices. WTI crude continues to trade around $100–101 a barrel, keeping concerns over sustained cost pressures and the broader economic outlook in focus.  

Asian markets offered a positive lead in early trading, buoyed by renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced more than 1%, while South Korea’s KOSPI climbed over 3%, signalling improved risk appetite across the region. However, investor sentiment is likely to remain guarded ahead of the Fed’s announcement, as its assessment of the economic and inflation outlook could influence US Treasury yields and the dollar, with implications for global risk appetite and capital flows into emerging markets.

The near-term direction of Indian equities is likely to hinge on the Fed’s policy signals, movements in crude oil prices and foreign portfolio investor flows. The rupee’s performance will also remain an important variable, particularly if elevated oil prices intensify pressure on India’s external balances. With investors likely to reassess positions ahead of the policy announcement, volatility may persist as global cues shape sentiment through the session. 

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to face resistance near the crucial 22,800 level, which closely aligns with the 20-day EMA. The index has repeatedly failed to sustain above this resistance zone on a closing basis, indicating persistent selling pressure at higher levels. A decisive breakout above 22,800, followed by sustained buying, could strengthen recovery momentum towards 23,000, with the next resistance placed around 23,200.
 
On the downside, the 22,600–22,500 zone remains the immediate support range. A decisive breakdown below this area could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to further weakness. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with sustained buying above 22,800 required to confirm a stronger recovery.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade within a weak broader technical structure, with recovery attempts facing resistance at higher levels. The index needs sustained buying above the 54,400–54,600 resistance zone to improve near-term sentiment and extend the recovery towards 55,000–55,200. Failure to reclaim this range could keep the index under pressure.
 
On the downside, the 54,000–53,800 zone remains the immediate support area. A decisive break below 53,800 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the next support near 53,500. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with the ability to hold key support levels and move above immediate resistance likely to determine the next directional move.