Indian equity markets are expected to remain volatile with a cautious undertone, as global developments continue to shape investor sentiment. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and rising concerns over potential disruptions to key oil shipping routes have led to sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices. For India, which remains heavily dependent on imported energy, sustained volatility in oil prices continues to pose a significant macroeconomic risk and could influence inflation expectations as well as overall market sentiment. Additionally, heavy selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and sustained weakness in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar are further weighing on investor sentiment. 

Global trade uncertainties have resurfaced after the United States launched a fresh investigation into the manufacturing and industrial practices of 16 economies, including India, China, Japan and the European Union, citing concerns over “structural excess capacity” that could distort global trade flows. The development has revived fears of renewed tariff measures, echoing earlier trade disputes, as Washington once again raises concerns about what it views as unfair trade practices by several countries.

Meanwhile, reports of a potential release of around 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves through a coordinated IEA initiative to offset supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict offered some near-term relief to global markets. However, crude prices continued to trend higher as persistent disruptions to tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks elevated and investor sentiment cautious.

 

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to trade with a cautious undertone following the recent bout of selling pressure that pushed the index below the psychologically important 24,000 mark. On the downside, immediate support is placed around 23,700, and a decisive break below this level could open the door for a deeper correction toward the 23,400 zone. On the upside, 24,000 now acts as the first layer of resistance, while a stronger hurdle is placed near the 24,300 region. A sustained move above 24,300 would be required to signal a meaningful recovery in the near term. Momentum indicators continue to reflect weakness, with the RSI hovering near the 30 level, close to the oversold territory, suggesting the possibility of a short-term technical bounce. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in negative territory, indicating that bearish momentum continues to dominate the broader trend. Overall, the index is likely to trade with a downside bias in the near term unless key resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to witness intermittent selling pressure despite signs of stabilization emerging at lower levels. On the downside, immediate support is placed around 55,300, followed by a stronger support zone near 54,700, which remains an important demand area in the near term. On the upside, 56,300 acts as the immediate resistance, while a sustained move above the 57,000 level would be required to revive bullish momentum and potentially push the index toward the 57,700 zone. Momentum indicators remain weak, with the RSI hovering around 29, indicating oversold conditions and the possibility of short-term pullbacks. However, the MACD continues to remain in negative territory, suggesting that bearish undertones still dominate the broader trend. Overall, Bank Nifty is expected to remain volatile with a mildly negative bias in the near term unless key resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.