The Indian equity market is expected to remain volatile with a cautious undertone, driven by a combination of global macro factors and evolving geopolitical developments. While the US–Iran–Israel conflict continues without any clear signs of de-escalation, the safe passage of vessels such as Shivalik and Nanda Devi, coupled with signals from the IEA regarding potential additional reserve releases to curb rising energy costs, has helped stabilize crude oil prices. Brent crude has moderated from recent highs of $100–$104 to the $98–$102 range, though it continues to trade at elevated levels.  
 
Continued FII outflows remain a significant overhang on the market, reflecting global risk aversion and a shift in capital flows away from emerging markets, thereby exerting additional pressure on the local currency. In contrast, robust DII inflows have helped stabilise the market by offsetting foreign selling pressure and containing downside risks in recent sessions.
 
From a macroeconomic perspective, inflation risks remain elevated, particularly if crude oil prices rebound, which could also lead to a widening current account deficit (CAD) and exert pressure on corporate margins in oil-sensitive sectors such as automobiles, aviation, and chemicals.

 
Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is displaying short-term recovery momentum after rebounding from the 22,950 support zone, with the index currently trading near the 23,400–23,500 resistance band. The recent rebound indicates short-covering and selective dip-buying following the sharp corrective phase witnessed earlier. Immediate support is placed around 23,200–23,100, while a stronger base remains near 22,950. Sustaining above these levels may help maintain the ongoing recovery attempt. On the upside, 23,500 continues to act as the key resistance, and a decisive breakout above this level could extend the recovery toward the 23,800–24,000 zone in the near term.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI is hovering around 30, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD remains in negative territory, reflecting that the broader trend continues to remain cautious. Overall the broader technical structure remains neutral to mildly bearish, unless the index decisively reclaims higher resistance levels, which would be required to confirm a stronger trend reversal.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty showed relative resilience in the previous session, contributing to the broader market recovery as the index attempts to stabilize after sustained selling pressure in banking stocks. Immediate support is placed around 53,700, and a decisive break below this level could extend the decline toward the 53,300–53,000 zone in the near term. On the upside, 54,500–54,700 remains the immediate resistance band, and a sustained move above this zone could trigger short-covering toward the 55,000 level.

From a momentum perspective, the RSI remains in oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical bounce, while the MACD continues to remain in negative territory, reflecting that the broader trend still carries a bearish undertone. Overall, the index maintains a neutral to weak bias with intermittent recovery attempts, while volatility is likely to remain elevated until the index decisively reclaims the key resistance zone.