Spotlight

Indian equities are poised for a weaker start, with investor sentiment remaining fragile as escalating tensions in the Middle East fuel a fresh surge in global oil prices and weigh on risk appetite. Early indications from Gift Nifty point to a modest gap-down opening, reflecting growing concerns over the conflict's potential impact on global energy supplies and inflation.

Markets were rattled after Yemen's Houthi rebels reportedly attacked two Saudi oil tankers, opening a new front in the regional conflict and raising fears of further disruptions to crude supplies. The latest escalation has pushed WTI crude toward $88 a barrel, while Brent has climbed above $95, intensifying concerns over inflation, central bank policy and the outlook for major oil-importing economies such as India.

The combination of elevated oil prices and persistent pressure on the Indian rupee is likely to keep investors cautious, with market participants expected to closely monitor geopolitical developments and energy markets for further direction.

The Indian rupee remained under pressure on Wednesday, slipping toward the ?96.5 mark against the U.S. dollar as soaring crude oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to fuel demand for the greenback and weigh on the domestic currency. Beyond developments in the Middle East, investors will turn their attention to the European Central Bank's policy decision and the latest U.S. weekly jobless claims data for fresh clues on the global interest-rate outlook and the strength of the U.S. economy. The two events are expected to shape broader risk sentiment and could influence trading across global financial markets.  

Domestically, the spotlight will shift to the IT sector as investors await Infosys' quarterly earnings, due after the close of trading, for fresh cues on demand trends and the sector's outlook.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to trade with a cautious bias as the index continues to hover near the 24,000 psychological mark after recent weakness. From a technical perspective, the 24,200 level now acts as the immediate and crucial resistance, followed by the 24,300–24,400 zone aligned with the 200-day EMA, remaining the bigger hurdle further out. A sustained move above this band will be required to revive bullish momentum and support a recovery towards the 24,500–24,600 region.
 
On the downside, with 24,000 now broken, the level becomes an immediate overhead pivot to reclaim, while support shifts down to the 23,900–23,800 zone. A failure to hold this band could open the door to further weakness towards 23,700. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious, reclaiming 24,000 early in the session would be the first sign of stabilization, while sustained trade below it keeps the path tilted lower.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is expected to trade with a cautious bias after witnessing a decisive breakdown in the previous session. The 57,000 psychological mark now remains the immediate and crucial support, with holding above this level being essential to prevent further downside. On the upside, the 57,500–57,600 zone has turned into the immediate resistance. A sustained move above this band could support a recovery towards the 57,900–58,000 region, while a decisive reclaim of 58,000 will be required to improve the broader technical outlook and revive bullish momentum.
 
On the downside, the 57,000 mark remains the immediate support. A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling pressure and drag the index towards the 56,800–56,700 support zone. Momentum indicators continue to remain weak, with the RSI slipping below the neutral 50 mark, reflecting weakening momentum and a deterioration in the near-term technical outlook. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautiously negative, with any recovery likely to face resistance at higher levels unless Bank Nifty decisively reclaims the 58,000 mark.