Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautiously optimistic undertone, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and the sharp correction in crude oil prices. Investor sentiment has improved as global markets increasingly price in the possibility of progress in the ongoing U.S.–Iran peace negotiations, with hopes of a diplomatic resolution and gradual de-escalation in the Middle East helping strengthen broader risk appetite. Expectations of a positive outcome from the talks have emerged as a key driver behind the recent recovery in global equities and the sharp repricing in energy markets.

Crude oil prices have corrected sharply and are currently stabilising in the $90–92 per barrel range. The sustained cooling in energy prices has significantly improved market sentiment by easing concerns surrounding inflation, import costs and corporate profitability, particularly across oil-sensitive sectors. 

On the currency front, USD/INR has stabilised near the 95.2 mark against the U.S. dollar. The sharp decline in crude oil prices has helped reduce pressure on the rupee, allowing the currency to recover partially from recent record lows and improving the broader macroeconomic outlook.

Institutional flow trends have also shown early signs of improvement. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have turned intermittent buyers in recent sessions after prolonged selling pressure. While foreign participation has not yet turned consistently positive, selective buying interest has provided some support to market sentiment. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs), meanwhile, continue to remain steady buyers, offering stability to the broader market through sustained domestic inflows.

Overall, investor sentiment remains cautiously constructive. Progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations, softer crude oil prices and stabilisation in the rupee have collectively improved confidence across financial markets. However, uncertainty surrounding the final outcome of the diplomatic process continues to remain a key risk factor, and any adverse geopolitical development could quickly revive volatility and risk-off positioning.

For the current recovery to sustain, markets are likely to require continued moderation in crude oil prices alongside stronger and more consistent institutional inflows in the coming sessions. 

Technical view 

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a positive undertone after decisively reclaiming the key psychological 24,000 mark in the previous session, helped the index break above its recent consolidation range, improving the near-term technical structure and market sentiment. Technically, sustained trading above the 24,000 level will remain crucial to maintain the ongoing positive momentum and confirm continuation of the breakout structure toward the broader 24,200–24,400 resistance zone, where stronger supply pressure is likely to emerge.
 
On the downside, the 23,800 zone is expected to act as an important immediate support area, while the broader 23,600 region continues to remain a strong support base for the index. Momentum indicators continue to strengthen, with the daily RSI trending near the mid-50s along with a bullish crossover, indicating improving momentum and increasing buying interest. Overall, the near-term technical structure remains cautiously bullish, with improving momentum supporting the ongoing recovery trend.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a positive recovery bias after witnessing strong upside momentum in recent session. The index is currently hovering near the immediate 55,400 resistance zone, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend the recovery toward the broader 55,800–56,000 resistance range, which remains a crucial hurdle for further upside continuation.
 
On the downside, immediate support is placed near the 54,700–54,600 zone, followed by a stronger support region around 54,400–54,200, where buying interest is likely to emerge on declines. Momentum indicators have shown gradual improvement following the recent recovery, reflecting strengthening sentiment and improving participation in banking stocks. Overall, Bank Nifty sentiment remains positive with a cautious recovery bias, while sustained trading above the 56,000 resistance zone will be essential for stronger bullish confirmation.