Indian equity markets are likely to remain under sustained selling pressure as global risk appetite deteriorates following the widening Israel–U.S.–Iran conflict across the Middle East. Disruptions to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz, driven by heightened security risks and rising insurance restrictions, have triggered a sharp surge in crude oil prices, amplifying inflation and supply concerns.

For India, one of the world’s largest oil importers, elevated energy prices pose a dual risk widening the current account deficit and intensifying imported inflation pressures. The macro sensitivity to crude remains high, particularly at a time when external balances are closely watched. 

Volatility indicators reflect the unease, with India VIX hovering near the 17 mark, signaling elevated hedging activity and choppy price action. Persistent foreign institutional outflows continue to weigh on sentiment, even as steady domestic institutional inflows offer a partial cushion. Against this backdrop, conditions remain fragile and defensively positioned. Trading is expected to stay volatile and directionally cautious until geopolitical risks recede or clearer macroeconomic catalysts restore confidence.

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 has decisively slipped below the key 25,000 psychological mark,indicating sustained near-term pressure.The 24,900–25,000 band now acts as an important resistance zone, and a sustained reclaim of this band is essential for any meaningful relief rally. Unless the index manages to close firmly back above this range, the breakdown structure continues to favor further downside. Immediate support is placed near 24,600, while a deeper cushion is seen in the 24,200–24,000 zone in case panic selling intensifies. Momentum indicators remain weak, with the RSI around 36, approaching oversold territory but without any confirmed reversal signals. The MACD is firmly negative with a widening histogram, indicating dominant bearish momentum, and prices continue to trade well below all key short-term EMAs. Overall bias remains bearish with elevated downside risk. A sell-on-rise strategy is favored, while only a sustained move above 25,300 would signal a potential stabilization or improvement in structure, especially amid ongoing geopolitical, oil, and tariff-driven volatility.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is tracking the broader market weakness, having slipped below its 20- and 50-day EMAs, though it continues to display relative resilience near an important demand zone. Immediate resistance is placed in the 60,200–60,500 range, while key support lies at 59,200–59,000, which coincides with the 100-day EMA. A decisive breach below this support band could open the door toward 58,700 in the event of intensified selling pressure. Momentum indicators reflect a soft undertone, with the RSI near 44, its weakest reading since early February, tilting to the downside. Additionally, a bearish MACD crossover has emerged, suggesting building downward momentum. While domestic institutional investment in banking stocks may help cushion sharper declines, the overall setup remains vulnerable unless the index stages a sustained move above 61,000 to signal clearer stabilization.