Spotlight

Indian equity markets are likely to begin the session on a cautious footing, with elevated crude oil prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East continuing to overshadow otherwise supportive regional cues. Although GIFT Nifty, trading around 23,980 against the Nifty's previous close of 23,897.70, points to a flat-to-mildly positive start, investors are expected to remain reluctant to build aggressive positions as geopolitical risks continue to cloud the near-term outlook.

Regional markets offered some encouragement in early trade. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed nearly 2%, while South Korea's Kospi gained more than 3%. The strength across Asian equities could provide initial support to domestic markets, although the durability of any rebound is likely to depend on developments in global energy markets.

Crude oil remains the dominant macro driver. WTI continues to trade at elevated levels around $91–92 per barrel as the latest escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz keeps concerns over potential supply disruptions firmly in focus. The sustained rise in oil prices has reinforced worries over inflation, higher input costs and India's import bill, limiting investors' willingness to chase equities at higher levels.

Attention will also turn to this week's U.S. inflation data, the next major macro catalyst for global markets. The readings will be scrutinised for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory after recent economic data revived expectations of a more restrictive monetary stance. The outcome is likely to influence Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and broader global risk sentiment, with implications extending across equity, commodity and currency markets.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50’s broader technical structure continues to remain weak, with the index trading below key moving averages and maintaining a descending price structure. On the upside, the 24,000–24,200 zone remains the immediate resistance band. The 24,000 psychological mark is particularly important, as the index has struggled to sustain gains above this level. A sustained move above 24,200 could improve the near-term structure and provide some relief to the prevailing bearish sentiment. However, unless the index decisively reclaims this resistance band, recovery attempts are likely to face selling pressure.
 
On the downside, 23,800 remains the immediate support zone. A decisive break below 23,800 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 23,600 region. Holding above 23,800 will therefore be important to prevent further deterioration in the short-term setup. Momentum indicators remain weak, reinforcing the prevailing cautious bias. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to display comparatively better resilience, but remains largely range-bound within the broader 57,000–58,000 region, with the latest technical readings indicating neutral momentum and continued consolidation. On the upside, 57,700–57,800 remains the immediate resistance zone, followed by the crucial 58,000 level. A sustained breakout above 58,000 could strengthen buying momentum and open the way towards 58,300–58,500. Until then, the broader structure is likely to remain capped by supply at higher levels.  
 
On the downside, 57,300–57,200 remains the immediate support region, followed by 57,000 zone. A decisive break below 57,000 could weaken the current consolidation structure and trigger fresh selling pressure towards 56,800–56,600. Momentum indicators remain mixed to neutral. Overall, the near-term outlook for Bank Nifty remains cautious and range-bound.