Spotlight

Indian equity markets are likely to remain cautious through the session, with persistently elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty keeping macroeconomic risks in focus. WTI crude is trading around $97–$98 a barrel, while Brent remains above $108, adding to uncertainty over the broader market outlook and the performance of oil-sensitive sectors.  Sustained strength in energy prices could also weigh on the rupee.

Further movements in crude oil prices will largely depend on developments around the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a key source of geopolitical uncertainty. Iran has reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within six days if the United States accepts its conditions, which include demands relating to the U.S. blockade, sanctions and a broader cessation of hostilities. However, the absence of an agreement leaves uncertainty over shipping flows and energy supplies elevated. Progress toward a diplomatic resolution could ease crude prices and support market sentiment, while further escalation or prolonged disruption to energy shipments could intensify volatility across global markets.

Asian markets opened under pressure, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling more than 2% and South Korea’s KOSPI losing over 1%, before both indices pared some of their early losses. Weakness across regional markets could weigh on domestic equities during the session, while movements in crude oil prices and further developments around the Strait of Hormuz are likely to remain key drivers of investor sentiment.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is approaching a crucial resistance zone, with further upside likely to depend on sustained buying interest. The immediate resistance is placed at 23,150–23,200. A decisive breakout above this zone could extend the ongoing recovery towards 23,300–23,400, a key resistance band that coincides with the previous gap area and the 50-day EMA. 

On the downside, 23,000–22,900 represents the immediate support zone, followed by 22,800. A sustained break below 22,800 could weaken the recovery and expose the index to further downside towards 22,600. Although recent price action indicates an improvement in short-term momentum, the broader technical trend remains unconfirmed. Sustained buying above the immediate resistance zone will be essential to strengthen the recovery and establish a more positive market structure.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade below the key resistance zone of 56,000–56,100, which remains a crucial hurdle for further upside. A decisive breakout above 56,100 could strengthen the short-term technical structure and pave the way for a recovery towards 56,500. Until the index clears this resistance zone, further gains may remain constrained by selling pressure at higher levels. 

On the downside, 55,600–55,500 represents the immediate support zone, followed by 55,000. A decisive break below 55,000 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the next support near 54,800. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautiously constructive as long as the index sustains above the 55,300–55,500 zone. However, a sustained breakout above 56,000–56,100 will be essential to confirm stronger buying interest and support further recovery.