U.S. markets closed higher overnight and Asian peers are trading firm in early trade after U.S. President Donald Trump rolled back tariff threats against European nations, citing a framework agreement on the Greenland issue. The easing of trade and geopolitical concerns has lifted global risk appetite, triggering a rebound in risk assets and some profit-taking in safe-haven gold and silver. The improved global tone may help stabilise domestic markets after two sessions of sharp selling, though investors are likely to remain cautious. 

A strong U.S. dollar and sustained FII selling remain key overhangs, while steady DII buying is providing partial support and preventing sharper downside. Earnings recovery has been slower than expected, and elevated valuations are undergoing a time-wise correction rather than a sharp price-led decline. The rupee slipping to fresh record lows near 91.69–91.72 against the dollar has intensified concerns around imported inflation and capital outflows. Meanwhile, India VIX has surged nearly 20% over the last three sessions, reflecting rising uncertainty driven by global macro risks, earnings volatility and currency pressure. While expectations around Union Budget 2026 are gradually building around potential capex and policy support, near-term sentiment remains defensive and highly selective.

NIFTY 50 

Nifty closed the previous session with a long-legged doji, highlighting sharp intraday volatility and clear indecision after the recent sell-off. The broader structure still reflects a bearish bias with lower highs and lower lows, but the doji formation, combined with oversold readings, indicates the possibility of a short-term technical rebound. The index is currently trading just below its 200-day EMA near 25,160, while RSI near 28 signals selling exhaustion and scope for short-covering. Immediate support is placed in the 25,000–25,120 zone; a decisive break below this area could extend the decline toward 24,900–24,700. On the upside, 25,300 remains the first hurdle, followed by a stronger resistance band at 25,600–25,700, which marks the earlier consolidation region. Near-term action is likely to remain choppy and range-bound in the absence of supportive global cues.

BANK NIFTY

Bank Nifty continues to display relatively weaker structure and remains more vulnerable compared to the broader market. The index is trading below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs and has triggered bearish crossover signals on lower timeframes, confirming weakening momentum. Immediate support lies at 58,500–58,300, a critical zone for short-term stability, with a stronger psychological base near 58,000. A sustained break below 58,500 could accelerate downside toward 58,000–57,800. On the upside, 59,000–59,300 acts as a stiff resistance band, and recovery attempts are likely to face selling pressure unless 59,000 is decisively reclaimed. RSI near 41 reflects fading strength. Overall, range-bound movement is expected, but the near-term bias remains tilted to the downside until clearer reversal signals emerge.