Spotlight

Indian markets are expected to trade cautiously, balancing an improving geopolitical backdrop against renewed volatility in global technology stocks. The U.S. continues to pause strikes on Iran, keeping hopes of a diplomatic resolution alive, although investors remain cautious as markets await tangible progress in the ongoing negotiations. Early indications from Gift Nifty futures, trading around the 24,000 mark, point to a largely flat start for domestic equities.

Crude oil prices extended their decline as optimism over renewed talks with Iran eased concerns about potential supply disruptions. WTI crude is currently trading in the $81–82 per barrel range, offering further relief for India's inflation outlook and import bill, while also supporting broader macroeconomic sentiment.

However, the improvement in geopolitical sentiment has been overshadowed by a sharp sell-off across Asian equity markets, led by technology stocks. Japan's Nikkei 225 has fallen more than 3%, while South Korea's Kospi has plunged over 7% in early trade, as renewed concerns over elevated AI-related valuations and weakening global risk appetite triggered broad-based selling across the technology sector.

While easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices provide a supportive backdrop for Indian equities, the sharp correction in Asian technology stocks is likely to keep investor sentiment subdued. With concerns over the global AI trade weighing on risk appetite, domestic markets are expected to adopt a cautious stance despite the relief from softer crude prices.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is expected to trade with a cautious undertone, as a sustained move above the 24,000 mark, reinforced by the highest Call Open Interest at this strike, remains crucial for the index to shift into a more constructive phase. A decisive breakout above this level could strengthen bullish momentum and pave the way for an advance towards the 24,150–24,200 zone, followed by 24,400.
 
On the downside, the 23,900–23,800 zone remains the immediate support, backed by strong Put Open Interest, followed by the 23,600 level, which continues to serve as a crucial demand area. Overall, the near-term technical outlook stays cautiously constructive. A sustained move above 24,000 is required to confirm that the recovery is gaining genuine traction, while holding above 23,800–23,900 remains essential to sustain the current momentum.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is currently positioned between its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, with the 57,300–57,400 zone, aligned with the 20-day EMA, acting as the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above this level could open the path towards the 57,700–57,800 zone, the next resistance to watch.
 
On the downside, the 57,000–56,800 region remains the immediate support, coinciding with the 50-day EMA. A break below this zone could drag the index back towards 56,700–56,600. Overall, the near-term technical outlook stays cautious, with the index positioned between its key moving averages. A sustained move above 57,300–57,400 would be needed to strengthen bullish momentum, while holding above 57,000–56,800 remains crucial to prevent a slide back towards lower support levels.