Indian markets are expected to open on a cautious note, as renewed geopolitical tensions and unfavourable global macroeconomic cues continue to weigh on overall risk sentiment. Iran’s latest remarks stating that the U.S. must either accept its peace proposal or face “failure” have further reduced hopes of an immediate diplomatic resolution. The prolonged U.S.–Iran standoff remains a major overhang for global financial markets, keeping uncertainty elevated around the Strait of Hormuz and broader global energy supplies.

Crude oil prices have reversed their recent cooling trend and are once again trading firmly above the $100 mark, currently hovering in the $101–103 per barrel range. Persistently elevated crude prices continue to amplify concerns around inflationary pressures and macroeconomic stability for oil-importing economies such as India.

On the global macro front, U.S. CPI inflation rose to 3.8% in April, coming in above market expectations of 3.7%. The stronger-than-expected inflation print has reinforced concerns that price pressures remain persistent, reducing expectations of an early rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve and weighing on global equity sentiment.

On the currency front, USD/INR has weakened further towards the 95.6–95.7 range, reflecting sustained pressure on the rupee amid elevated crude prices, firm dollar demand and continued foreign institutional outflows. Persistent currency weakness is also intensifying concerns around imported inflation.

Global sentiment remains subdued, with Wall Street closing lower in the previous session and Asian markets tracking the negative momentum. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to remain net sellers, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) provided partial support through steady domestic buying activity.

Overall, market sentiment remains highly fragile and headline-driven, with geopolitical developments, crude oil trends, global inflation signals, currency fluctuations and institutional flow dynamics expected to remain the key drivers for Indian equities in the near term.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a negative to cautious undertone following the recent sharp decline and persistent weakness in broader market sentiment. Technically, the 23,300–23,150 zone remains a crucial support area, and a sustained breakdown below this region could accelerate downside pressure toward the 23,000–22,900 levels. On the upside, the 23,500–23,600 band is expected to act as immediate resistance, followed by the broader 23,900–24,000 zone, where selling pressure is likely to emerge on recovery attempts. Momentum indicators remain weak, with RSI hovering around the 40 mark while MACD continues to reflect fading momentum and subdued buying conviction. Overall, the near-term market structure remains fragile and volatile, while a decisive reclaim above the psychological 24,000 mark will be essential to stabilize sentiment.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a weak and volatile undertone amid persistent pressure in the broader market and cautious sentiment in the banking space. Technically, the 53,200–53,000 zone remains an important immediate support area, and a decisive break below this region could extend weakness toward the 52,700–52,500 levels. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 53,800–54,000, followed by the broader 54,300–54,500 zone, where selling pressure is likely to emerge on recovery attempts. Momentum indicators remain subdued, reflecting weak buying interest at higher levels. Overall, Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautious to negative bias, while stronger recovery signals are likely only on a sustained move above immediate resistance levels.