Spotlight

Indian markets are likely to trade with a positive bias as improving geopolitical sentiment and a sharp decline in crude oil prices continue to support risk appetite. Crude oil prices have fallen sharply to a nearly three-month low and are currently trading in the $75–76 per barrel range. Falling energy prices are expected to act as a tailwind for the Indian economy, helping contain inflation, improve external balances and support earnings growth across several sectors.

However, some caution persists ahead of the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, as investors await further clarity on the future interest rate trajectory. The outcome and commentary from the Fed will be closely monitored by global markets and could influence near-term risk sentiment.

Domestically, concerns are beginning to emerge over the weak progress of the monsoon, with several parts of the country reporting significant rainfall deficits. Any prolonged disruption could affect farm incomes and rural demand, potentially weighing on consumption growth and sectors dependent on discretionary spending. Investors are therefore expected to closely track monsoon trends as an important indicator of the broader economic outlook.

Foreign investors remain net sellers, underscoring the cautious stance of overseas funds despite the recent improvement in market conditions. Although the pace of outflows has moderated significantly from the levels seen during the period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, foreign flows continue to be a key determinant of market sentiment. Strong and consistent participation from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), however, has helped absorb much of the selling pressure, providing an important stabilising influence on the broader market.

 

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a positive bias, supported by sustained buying interest and its ability to hold above key support levels following the recent recovery. From a technical perspective, the 24,000 level continues to remain a crucial immediate resistance area and a key psychological hurdle for the index. A sustained breakout above this level could reinforce bullish momentum and pave the way for a further advance towards the 24,200–24,400 region, which remains the next significant resistance band.

On the downside, the 23,900 level is expected to act as an important immediate support area. Holding above this level will be essential to preserve the current recovery structure and maintain the positive market bias. However, a decisive breach below 23,800 could trigger profit booking and expose the index to the 23,600–23,500 support zone. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains positive, with the index continuing to trade above key support levels. However, a decisive breakout above the 24,000 mark will be crucial to confirm stronger bullish momentum and support an extension of the ongoing recovery towards higher resistance levels.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to exhibit resilience and remains comfortably above its key support levels. From a technical perspective, a sustained move above the 57,400 level could strengthen bullish momentum and extend the ongoing rally towards the 57,800–58,000 zone, which remains a crucial resistance area and is likely to witness some profit booking at higher levels.

On the downside, the 57,000 level continues to act as an important support area. Holding above this level will be essential to maintain the prevailing positive structure and preserve the ongoing recovery trend. However, a decisive breach below 57,000 could trigger renewed profit booking and expose the index to the 56,800–56,700 support region. Overall, the near-term outlook for Bank Nifty remains positive, with sustained strength above key support levels keeping the broader recovery intact.