Spotlight

Indian markets are expected to begin the new week with a cautious undertone as renewed uncertainty surrounding the proposed U.S.–Iran agreement tempers the optimism that had supported risk sentiment in recent sessions. While diplomatic engagement between the two sides continues, negotiations remain fluid, with reports suggesting that U.S. President Donald Trump has sought revisions to elements of the proposed agreement even as both parties continue to exchange draft proposals. Adding to investor caution, escalating geopolitical tensions elsewhere in the region, including Israel’s expanded military operations in Lebanon, have complicated the broader Middle East outlook and reinforced concerns over regional stability.

Crude oil prices have rebounded from their recent six-week lows and are currently trading in the $89–90 per barrel range. Although prices remain well below the highs seen earlier in the month, the recovery reflects growing market caution over the final outcome of the U.S.–Iran negotiations and the potential implications for global energy supplies and shipping routes.

Investor attention is also likely to remain firmly focused on institutional flow dynamics. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have continued to maintain a net selling stance in recent sessions, highlighting a degree of caution towards emerging markets. Persistent foreign outflows remain a key factor limiting stronger upside momentum in Indian equities, even as robust domestic participation continues to provide an important source of market support.

Overall, investor sentiment is expected to remain cautious and highly sensitive to incoming developments. Markets are likely to take direction from headlines surrounding the U.S.–Iran negotiations, geopolitical developments across the Middle East, movements in crude oil prices, rupee trends and institutional flows. In the absence of greater clarity on the geopolitical front, volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors balance improving domestic fundamentals against an uncertain global backdrop.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to trade with a cautious undertone, reflecting persistent selling pressure at higher levels and the absence of strong follow-through buying. From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is placed in the 23,750–23,800 zone, while the broader 24,000–24,100 range remains a major hurdle and key resistance area for the index. A sustained breakout above these levels will be crucial to revive bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance toward the 24,200–24,400 levels.
 
On the downside, the 23,500 region continues to act as an important immediate support zone, while the broader 23,300–23,000 range remains a strong base support area. A decisive break below these levels could weaken the near-term technical structure and trigger further downside pressure. Overall, the near-term structure remains cautious, with the index likely to remain range-bound and under pressure unless it decisively reclaims key resistance levels.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautious to mildly weak undertone amid the absence of strong buying interest at higher levels. From a technical perspective, immediate resistance is placed in the 54,600–54,800 zone, while the broader 55,400–55,600 range continues to act as a major resistance and supply area. A sustained breakout above these levels will be crucial to improve sentiment and revive bullish momentum, potentially opening room toward the 55,800–56,000 levels.
 
On the downside, immediate support is positioned at 54,200–54,000. A decisive breakdown below this band could accelerate downside pressure toward the 53,700–53,600 support zone, reinforcing the prevailing weak technical structure and increasing the risk of further correction. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious to mildly negative, with Bank Nifty likely to remain under pressure unless it decisively reclaims and sustains above the 55,200 mark.