Spotlight

Indian equity markets look set for a cautious start today, after Wall Street closed lower for a second straight session overnight with only pockets of AI-linked names holding up, as surging crude oil prices and a sharp spike in 10-year US  Treasury yield pushed to its highest level in nearly two decades on inflation worries tied to the energy shock.
 
Crude remains the dominant overhang for domestic markets. WTI is trading well within $104-105 range, driven by fresh escalation in the Middle East, including strikes on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and continued disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp rise in energy costs is a direct negative for India as a large net oil importer, adding pressure on the rupee, the current account outlook and domestic inflation expectations.
 
All eyes now turn to the US Federal Reserve, which concludes its two-day policy meeting later today. Markets have moved from expecting a hold to pricing in a real possibility of a rate hike the first since 2023 as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent Jackson Hole commentary leaned hawkish and the oil-driven inflation pickup adds to the case for tighter policy. A hike, or even hawkish guidance, would likely weigh further on emerging-market flows, including India, given elevated US yields are already drawing capital away from riskier assets.
 
On the domestic front, sentiment stays fragile after a stretch of selling pressure, with FIIs continuing to be net sellers in the cash segment over the past several sessions. Until there is greater clarity on both the oil-driven inflation trajectory and tonight's Fed decision, the bias for Indian equities is likely to stay cautious, with any relief largely contingent on crude prices stabilizing and West Asia tensions showing signs of de-escalation.

Technical view 

Nifty 50 

Nifty 50 is likely to remain under pressure after witnessing a sharp breakdown and forming a sustained sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The index continues to trade in a strong bearish structure, with momentum indicators pointing to persistent weakness. On the upside, 23,300–23,400 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, while 23,500 remains the key hurdle. A sustained move above 23,500 could provide some stability and trigger a technical recovery toward higher levels, although recovery attempts may continue to face selling pressure until these levels are convincingly reclaimed.
 
On the downside, 23,070 remains the crucial support, coinciding with the June low. A decisive break below this level could accelerate selling pressure toward the 23,000–22,800 region. The RSI near 22 indicates deeply oversold conditions, keeping the possibility of a short-term technical bounce alive, while the MACD remains firmly bearish and continues to signal weak momentum. Overall, the bias remains bearish, with any recovery likely to require sustained buying above the key resistance levels.

 
Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is likely to remain under pressure after breaking below the important 56,200–56,100 support zone and extending its decline toward lower levels. The index continues to exhibit a bearish structure, with momentum indicators confirming persistent selling pressure. On the upside, 56,200–56,100 is likely to act as the immediate resistance zone, while 56,700–56,800 remains the major hurdle. A sustained move above 56,800 could improve the near-term structure and support a recovery, while failure to reclaim the broken support zone could keep the index vulnerable to selling at higher levels.
 
On the downside, 55,700–55,500 remains the immediate support zone. A decisive break below 55,500 could extend the decline toward 55,200–55,000. RSI near 33 remains weak and is approaching oversold territory, while the bearish MACD structure and expanding negative histogram indicate continued downside momentum. Overall, the technical outlook remains bearish, although the weakening RSI leaves room for a short-term technical bounce.