Spotlight

Indian markets are expected to trade with a cautious bias despite indications of a mildly positive opening, as elevated crude oil prices, persistent weakness in the Indian rupee, and escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran are likely to cap near-term upside. Gift Nifty is currently trading around 24,120, compared with the Nifty's previous close of 24,078.50, signalling a marginally positive start. However, investors are likely to refrain from taking aggressive directional positions until there is greater clarity on the evolving geopolitical situation.

Global cues remain mixed. Wall Street ended higher overnight after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less hawkish monetary policy stance. A stronger-than-expected start to the U.S. earnings season also supported investor sentiment. In contrast, Asian markets are trading sharply lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 declining more than 3% and South Korea's Kospi falling over 6% in early trade, reflecting renewed concerns over the escalating Middle East conflict and its potential impact on global growth.

Adding to investor concerns, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that prolonged disruptions in the Middle East could pose significant risks to global energy supplies and economic growth. With crude oil prices remaining elevated and geopolitical risks continuing to dominate market sentiment, investors are expected to remain cautious in the near term.  

On the domestic front, the India–UK trade pact has officially come into effect, reducing tariffs on a range of goods while strengthening bilateral services trade. The agreement is expected to improve long-term trade prospects and provide a positive structural boost to the Indian economy.

Technical view

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to exhibit a cautious technical structure, although sustained buying interest around the 24,000 psychological mark continues to support the broader recovery trend. From a technical perspective, the 24,200 level remains the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above this level would reinforce bullish momentum and could pave the way for an advance towards the 24,300–24,400 region.
 
On the downside, the 24,000 psychological mark continues to serve as the immediate and crucial support. However, a decisive break below 24,000 could trigger renewed selling pressure and drag the index towards the 23,900–23,800 support zone. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautiously positive. However, the index will need to reclaim and sustain above the 24,200 resistance level to confirm stronger bullish momentum and support the continuation of the ongoing recovery.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a cautious undertone, as the index continues to face resistance at higher levels despite buying interest emerging near key support zones. From a technical perspective, the 58,000–58,200 region remains the immediate resistance. A sustained breakout above this band would improve sentiment and could pave the way for a recovery towards the 58,400–58,600 zone.
 
On the downside, the 57,600–57,500 region continues to serve as the immediate support zone. However, a decisive break below 57,500 could revive selling pressure and drag the index towards the 57,300–57,200 support region. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautiously positive. However, Bank Nifty will need to reclaim and sustain above the 58,000–58,200 resistance zone to reinforce bullish momentum and confirm the continuation of its recovery.