Spotlight

Indian equities are expected to remain under pressure as elevated crude oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields, amid persistent geopolitical tensions, continue to cloud the global macroeconomic outlook.  WTI crude has climbed into the $96–97 per barrel range, while Brent is trading above $101.50 per barrel, reinforcing concerns over inflation and pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher as investors reassess the global interest-rate outlook. The combination of elevated energy prices and firming bond yields is likely to keep risk appetite subdued and weigh on emerging-market equities, including India.

Geopolitical risks remain firmly in focus. While U.S. President Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran could end "immediately" after the midterm elections, the lack of clarity over the path to de-escalation is keeping investors cautious and the geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in energy markets.

Asian equities are mirroring the weaker global tone, with Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi both falling more than 1% in early trade after losses on Wall Street and across European markets in the previous session. The subdued regional backdrop is expected to weigh on sentiment at the domestic open.

Looking ahead, investors will closely watch upcoming U.S. inflation data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce higher-for-longer interest-rate expectations, potentially keeping Treasury yields elevated and limiting risk appetite across global equity markets.

Technical View

Nifty 50

The Nifty 50 continues to remain under pressure, with the broader technical structure still bearish and momentum indicators pointing to further downside pressure. On the upside, the 23,550–23,600 zone now represents the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above 23,600 could provide some stability and trigger a recovery toward the 23,800 zone. However, unless the index decisively reclaims this resistance band, the broader bearish bias is likely to persist.  
 
On the downside, a sustained break below 23,400 could trigger further selling pressure and drag the index toward the 23,200 zone. A break below 23,200 would further weaken the technical structure and could expose the index to lower support levels. The RSI remains deeply oversold in the mid-20s, indicating strong selling pressure, although the possibility of a technical bounce remains. A sustained recovery would require the index to reclaim key resistance levels. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains bearish.

Bank Nifty 

Bank Nifty continues to trade with a weak undertone. While the index has shown some relative resilience at times, the broader technical structure remains weak as banking stocks struggle to provide sustained support to the benchmark. On the upside, the 56,700–56,800 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance area, followed by the 57,500 level. A sustained move above 57,500 could improve the near-term technical structure and open the way toward the 57,800–58,000 region.

On the downside, 56,200–56,000 remains the key support zone. A decisive break below 56,000 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 55,800 level. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious to bearish. Bank Nifty needs to reclaim and sustain above 57,500 to strengthen the technical structure, while a decisive break below 56,000 could accelerate the downside.