Spotlight

Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautious bias today, with crude oil prices remaining the biggest near-term risk for domestic equities. Renewed U.S.–Iran military tensions and the latest escalation involving Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have raised concerns over a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions to global energy and shipping routes. While GIFT Nifty futures are indicating a technical rebound from last week’s lows, the macroeconomic pressure from higher oil prices amid an uncertain geopolitical backdrop is likely to keep investor sentiment guarded at higher levels.

Crude oil prices remain elevated, with WTI trading in the $102–103-per-barrel range and Brent moving above $106 amid concerns over disruptions to Saudi oil infrastructure and key shipping routes. The rise in crude prices has also reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy globally.

Global technology stocks are facing additional pressure following concerns raised by senior AI executives over the pace and risks associated with AI development. The sell-off in semiconductor and AI-related stocks has further unsettled global equity markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed the 5% mark for the first time since 2023, reflecting heightened inflation concerns linked to elevated energy prices and expectations of further monetary tightening.

Asian markets are trading on a mixed note in early trade, with regional investors assessing the impact of elevated oil prices, higher global bond yields and continued volatility in technology and semiconductor stocks. The Nikkei 225 is edging slightly higher, while the KOSPI remains largely flat. 

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is likely to trade with a weak undertone, as it continues to hold below its key moving averages, with the broader technical structure remaining bearish. On the upside, the 23,500–23,600 zone stands as the immediate resistance area. A sustained move above 23,600 would improve the near-term structure and open the path toward the 23,800–24,000 region; until the index decisively reclaims this band, recovery attempts are likely to face renewed selling pressure.
 
On the downside, 23,300–23,200 remains the immediate and crucial support zone. A decisive break below 23,200 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 23,000 region. Momentum indicators remain weak, with the RSI, near 27, points to oversold conditions, while the MACD remains firmly in negative territory, confirming that momentum continues to favour the bears. Overall, the near-term technical outlook stays bearish.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty is likely to remain cautious in the near term, as the index continues to encounter resistance at higher levels. The recent bounce will need sustained follow-through buying to confirm a durable shift in trend. On the upside, the 56,700–56,800 zone stands as the immediate resistance, and a decisive move above 57,000 would strengthen the recovery structure, opening the path toward 57,500–57,800.
 
On the downside, 56,200–56,000 remains the key support region. A confirmed break below 56,000 would intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 55,800–55,600 zone. Overall, the near-term technical outlook for Bank Nifty stays cautious, with the index likely to remain range-bound until it clears the resistance band decisively.