Spotlight

Indian equity markets are likely to open on a cautious note and remain under pressure, as  persistently high crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions weigh on investor sentiment. WTI crude is trading near $98 a barrel, while Brent has moved above $110, keeping macroeconomic risks firmly in focus. The prospect of sustained energy-price pressures could temper hopes of a durable recovery in domestic equities.

Escalating US–Iran tensions and reports of attacks on Saudi infrastructure have heightened concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. Uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains a key risk, with any further escalation likely to push crude prices higher and trigger renewed volatility across global markets. A meaningful easing of tensions, however, could help moderate the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

On the domestic front, quarterly earnings from heavyweight companies may provide pockets of support, although the broader market outlook remains fragile. Investors are likely to focus on earnings quality, management guidance and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows for signs of whether the recent attempt at recovery can gain traction amid an increasingly challenging external environment.

Asian markets are trading lower in early deals, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down around 0.30% and South Korea’s KOSPI falling more than 1%, signalling a weak regional backdrop for Indian equities. With elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and corporate earnings likely to shape sentiment, domestic benchmarks may remain volatile, with the sustainability of any recovery hinging on global cues and the extent of buying support at lower levels.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 remains under pressure, with renewed selling keeping market sentiment cautious. The index is trading just above the crucial 22,800 support zone, making this level important for near-term stability. On the upside, 23,000 represents the immediate resistance, followed by 23,200. A sustained move above 23,200 could improve the short-term technical structure and open the way towards 23,300–23,400. However, failure to reclaim these resistance levels could leave the index vulnerable to further selling pressure and profit booking at higher levels.
 
On the downside, a decisive break below 22,800 zone could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the recent lows around 22,650–22,600. Momentum indicators remain mixed, while the price action continues to reflect selling pressure at higher levels. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with the index requiring sustained buying above immediate resistance levels to regain upward momentum.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty's inability to sustain higher levels indicates that selling pressure continues to dominate, keeping the near-term outlook cautious. On the upside, 55,000–55,200 forms the immediate resistance zone, where recovery attempts may encounter selling pressure unless buying participation improves. A sustained move above 55,600 would help stabilise the short-term technical structure and open the way for a recovery towards 56,000.

On the downside, 54,600–54,400 represents the immediate support zone. A decisive break below this range could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards 54,000–53,800. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious to bearish, with the index's ability to sustain above 54,400–54,600 being crucial to prevent a deeper correction.