Spotlight

Indian equities are likely to begin the session on a cautious footing as elevated crude oil prices and persistent geopolitical tensions continue to dominate the market narrative. While Asian markets are trading modestly higher, the rebound in regional risk appetite is unlikely to fully offset concerns surrounding rising energy costs and their implications for inflation, corporate margins and India's external balances.

Oil remains the principal macro driver. WTI crude is holding in the $94–95 per barrel range after the latest escalation in hostilities across the Middle East heightened fears of further disruptions to global energy supplies. With no clear signs of de-escalation, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices is expected to remain elevated, keeping volatility across global financial markets high.

Investors will also continue to monitor developments in the region after fresh attacks involving Houthi militants and reports of U.S. strikes targeting Iranian tankers reinforced concerns over the security of energy shipments. Any further escalation around key shipping routes is likely to remain a significant source of uncertainty for global markets. Bullion markets remain in focus as well.

Gold is hovering near recent lows as stronger expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy offset safe-haven demand arising from geopolitical tensions. Elevated Treasury yields and a firmer U.S. dollar continue to limit the metal's upside despite the uncertain geopolitical backdrop.

Regional equities are offering modestly constructive cues, with Japan's Nikkei 225 trading marginally higher and South Korea's Kospi gaining more than 0.5% in early trade. Even so, the improvement in Asian sentiment may provide only limited support for domestic equities as elevated crude oil prices remain the dominant headwind for Indian markets.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 continues to extend its downward trajectory and remains in a bearish technical structure, with selling pressure continuing to dominate the index. Recovery attempts are likely to face resistance at higher levels as the index struggles to regain its lost support zones. Technically the 23,700–23,800 now remains the immediate resistance, followed by the stronger 24,000 zone. A sustained move above 23,800 would be required to provide some stability, while a decisive reclaim of 24,000 would be important to signal a meaningful improvement in the near-term structure.  
 
On the downside, 23,600 remains the immediate and crucial support zone. A decisive break below this level could accelerate the downside and expose the index to the 23,400 region, potentially reinforcing the broader bearish structure. Momentum remains weak, indicating that sellers continue to maintain control over the near-term trend. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains bearish, with the index likely to remain under pressure unless it decisively reclaims the 23,800–24,000 resistance zone.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade with weakness, facing selling pressure at higher levels, keeping the short-term technical setup cautious. On the upside, 57,000, which previously acted as an important support, is now likely to act as the immediate resistance. This is followed by the 57,500–57,600 resistance zone. A sustained move above 57,600 could improve the short-term setup and open the way towards the 57,800–58,000 region.  
 
On the downside, 56,600–56,500 remains the immediate support zone, followed by 56,200–56,000 in case of extended weakness. A decisive break below 56,500 could accelerate selling pressure and further weaken the technical structure. Overall, the near-term technical outlook remains cautious to bearish. The index needs to reclaim and sustain above 57,000, followed by 57,600, to signal a meaningful recovery. Until then, recovery attempts are likely to face selling pressure, while a break below 56,500 could accelerate the downside.