Bank Nifty prediction today

On April 16, 2025, Indian stock markets opened on a weaker note amid mixed global cues and domestic macroeconomic concerns. The benchmark indices slipped in early trade, reflecting pressure from a widening trade deficit and easing inflation. India’s trade gap rose sharply in March as imports jumped over 11%, while export growth remained muted. On the positive side, retail inflation cooled to a five-year low of 3.34%, driven by a drop in food prices. This moderation in both headline and core inflation has raised expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the central bank. However, global uncertainty—particularly around policy signals from the U.S. and geopolitical risks—continues to weigh on sentiment. Technical indicators suggest the market may stay range-bound in the near term, with key support levels seen just below current prices and resistance capping the upside. In the derivatives space, heavy call writing at higher levels indicates strong resistance, while put writing at lower levels suggests some accumulation. Volatility has declined significantly, with the India VIX falling nearly 20%, though it remains above the psychological comfort zone, implying possible intraday swings. Sectors sensitive to interest rates may benefit from easing inflation, while consumer-oriented industries could see tailwinds from lower food prices. In contrast, export-driven segments might stay under pressure due to the trade imbalance and uncertain global trends. With a market holiday approaching and earnings season underway, investors are expected to remain cautious. International developments, especially any statements or actions from figures like Trump or shifts in U.S. economic policy, will also be closely watched.