Market Commentary

Indian equity markets are expected to remain under pressure today as a sharp rise in crude oil prices continues to weigh on investor sentiment. WTI crude is trading in the $103–104-per-barrel range after rising around 7.5% in the previous session, while Brent has moved toward the $108 mark amid escalating tensions involving Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia. The sharp increase in crude prices is likely to heighten concerns over India's import bill, inflation and corporate margins, keeping risk appetite subdued.

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with reports of Tehran-backed rebels capturing a key Red Sea port, raising concerns over potential disruptions to shipping and regional trade routes. Meanwhile, continued exchanges of strikes involving the U.S. and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz are adding to uncertainty over global energy supplies and keeping the geopolitical risk premium in crude markets elevated.

Asian markets are also trading sharply lower, with the Nikkei 225 and Kospi both declining more than 2.5%, while weak overnight cues from Wall Street are adding to the broader risk-off mood.

U.S. wholesale inflation rose 0.4% in August, taking annual PPI inflation to 5.4% from 4.8% in July, driven largely by higher energy costs. The pickup in producer prices, alongside surging crude oil prices, has reinforced concerns over inflation and increased expectations for tighter monetary policy ahead. The upcoming U.S. CPI data will therefore be closely watched for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook ahead of its September 16 decision.

Gold is heading for a weekly decline as higher oil prices and firmer inflation expectations strengthen expectations for a less accommodative Federal Reserve policy, adding pressure on the precious metal. U.S. CPI data and the Fed's upcoming policy decision are likely to remain key drivers of gold prices in the near term.

The combination of weaker global equities, surging crude oil prices and persistent geopolitical uncertainty is likely to keep the domestic market on the defensive at the open.

Technical View

Nifty 50

Nifty 50 is likely to remain under pressure, with the index continuing to trade below key moving averages and maintaining a bearish short-, medium- and long-term technical structure. The 23,500–23,600 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance. A sustained move above 23,600 could trigger a technical recovery toward 23,800, while failure to reclaim this zone could keep selling pressure intact.
 
On the downside, 23,200 now remains the crucial support zone. A decisive break below this level could accelerate the decline toward 23,050–23,000. RSI remains deeply oversold, keeping the possibility of a short-term technical bounce alive, although any recovery would require confirmation through sustained buying. Overall, the bias remains bearish, with a relief bounce possible only if key resistance levels are convincingly reclaimed.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty continues to trade below key moving averages, keeping the broader technical structure weak and leaving the index vulnerable to selling pressure at higher levels. On the upside, the 56,700–56,800 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance, while a sustained move above 57,000 could improve the near-term structure and open the way toward 57,500.
 
On the downside, 56,200–56,000 remains the crucial support zone. A decisive break below 56,000 could intensify selling pressure and expose the index to the 55,800–55,600 region. Overall, the technical outlook remains bearish.