Market Commentary

Indian equity markets may attempt to extend their recent recovery, with investors drawing some encouragement from renewed diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the U.S.–Iran conflict. Discussions involving Iranian officials and Qatari mediators have raised hopes of a possible breakthrough that could ease supply concerns and improve the outlook for global energy markets. Any tangible progress on this front could help reduce the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil and offer near-term support to domestic equities. 

However, WTI crude continues to trade near $102 a barrel, while Brent remains above $110, keeping energy costs elevated and broader macroeconomic concerns in focus. With oil prices still at elevated levels, the near-term direction of domestic equities is likely to remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East. Investors will look for tangible signs of diplomatic progress before viewing the latest optimism as a sustained improvement in the global risk environment.

Technical View 

Nifty 50 

Nifty 50 index is showing signs of improving short-term momentum following its recent recovery. However, it continues to trade below its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, indicating that the broader technical structure remains under pressure. The immediate resistance is placed around 23,200, followed by 23,400. A sustained breakout above 23,200, supported by stronger buying participation, could extend the recovery towards higher resistance levels.
 
On the downside, 23,000–22,900 represents the immediate support zone. Holding above 22,800 remains crucial to sustaining the ongoing recovery, while a decisive breakdown below this level could weaken momentum and expose the index to further downside. The near-term outlook has improved to cautiously positive. However, a sustained move above 23,200 is essential to strengthen recovery momentum and confirm a more constructive technical structure.

Bank Nifty 

Bank Nifty continues to face selling pressure near the 55,000–55,200 resistance zone, indicating limited buying interest at higher levels. A decisive breakout above 55,200, supported by stronger participation across banking stocks, could improve short-term momentum and pave the way for an upward move towards 55,800. However, failure to reclaim this resistance zone could keep the index under pressure.
 
On the downside, 54,600–54,400 represents the immediate support zone. A decisive breakdown below 54,400 could weaken the near-term structure and intensify selling pressure, while a further decline below 54,000 could expose the index to the next support zone. Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautious, with a sustained move above the 55,000–55,200 resistance band needed to strengthen recovery momentum and establish a more constructive technical outlook.

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Analyst Certification: I/We, Ajith Kamti Research Analyst, authors, and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. NISM Research Analyst registration number – NISM-202500242249.